Hi Shylock,
As an interested bystander I was caught.
And as always, we learn by our mistakes. So ... one asks the questions, and asks the questions, and asks the questions.
There is no end to the learning in this game.
But, as Nassim Taleb says, too often we are just fooled by randomness. So ... maybe there was nothing to learn at all ... it was just random movement.
So ... we learn to be wary of everything ... and that can result in paralysis by analysis.
In the end ... it comes down to ... let your winners run ... and cut your losers short.
Tight stops.
Cheers
Red
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