RedBridge Poll: "R.I.P., Voice", page-24

I'm taking my cue from as many sources as possible.

Greg Craven comes to mind with his 'Once a 'Yes' switches to 'No', that vote is congealed'.
Add in Richo's 'You don't mess around with the Constitution with this type of change' (or words to that effect).
Then there's the 60% and still falling ALP voter support. Don't forget this is a highly ambitious proposal which almost certainly required bipartisan support to succeed. Plus the incredulity of holding a referendum where so many people even at this late stage are light on detail.
The sheer intransigence of the PM in refusing to change course will spell the death knell for recognition. His 2GB performance was proof. I also think that if the polls are inaccurate, they will be in the way of Trump's 2016 surprise victory...not everybody wants to be mistaken

I'll only make a fool of myself the day Australians stop talking to one another at work, home or at social gatherings. It's all turning into a roar.

But you're right. The only poll that counts is the referendum itself. If I'm wrong, feel free to rub it in.