my number of $53 per kWh came from this article:
disallowed/environment/climate-change/it-s-good-news-scientists-suspect-history-about-to-be-made-in-china-20240709-p5jsbi.htmlI believe the article, it’s consistent with several other articles I’ve read, and think it’s corroborated by the fact that I can do a quick Google search and find an 9.6kWh battery on aliexpress for $837 (free delivery!). While I cant get an installer yet to give me close to that price, I think it indicates they’re available, and price dropping fast, and at the moment I think the Tesla powerwall is massively overpriced. I think that’s supported also by the fact that buying an EV with battery included is cheaper per kWh than buying a battery alone (which is just a ridiculous and unsustainable situation). The only reason prices are so high today is because even at these ridiculously inflated prices, people still get value from them, but once the early adopters are sated, the price is going to crash, and it’s going to be a fast fall because they’re so cheap to make.
so yes, I’m saying that if the ZBM3 wants to get traction in the marketplace, it needs to be manufactured for $400. If they can’t do that, I don’t think they’ll get out of relying on government grants. I agree with you that this seems very unlikely.
I think you’ve misunderstood what RTE is - the usable energy is irrelevant to the RTE calculation. Tesla RTE is over 90%, and that’s what they’ve got to compete against.
(20min delay)