reduced risk

SBM increased cash position by 52m in June quarter. I expected SBM to drop below $1.20 but I now think that SBM is a good buy at $1.35.

Total Shares: 325m+ (204m*0.8) = 488m shares.
Market Cap: 658m @ $1.35
Total Debt: 120m (SBM) +80 (ALD’s gold loan) =200m
Total Cash: 189m (SBM) +38m (ALD) + 120m -208m = 139m
Capx: further 16m required for Simber mine expansion

Production forecast:
Simber (ALD): targeting 75000 oz production at $850/oz cash cost in 6 months

Gold Ridge (ALD): targeting 105000 oz production at $850/oz cash cost in 6 months

Gwalia (SBM): 180000 oz production at $650/oz cash cost

King of the hill (SBM): 50000 oz production at $750/oz cash cost

South Cross (SBM) : running out of reserve

Total: 400000 oz at $750/oz cash cost and $1150/per oz total cost

Margin: $400/oz at gold price $1550/oz

They will need to pay off 60000oz @ $1330/oz for ALD’s 80m gold loan 1st,

Potential positive cash flow: 400000oz*$400/oz margin = 160m