LYC 4.05% $7.71 lynas rare earths limited

Thank you this shows lots of hard work and I learned a few...

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    Thank you this shows lots of hard work and I learned a few things.

    https://www.lynascorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/190829-FY19-Financial-Results-Presentation-1965242.pdf slide 9

    From H2 FY19, Lynas has reserved all NdPr production for strategic customers Key Customers are progressively agreeing long term supply and pricing agreement

    This was very informative but no where do they say a thing about there being a floor price. Maybe you think a long term agreement would have a floor but you need more than this. The block on right is interesting "NdPr demand is forecast to accelerate from 2021 with launch of most new EV models" does this mean the current prices will not recover till 2021? This is worse than even I have been saying. Is AL trying cover her liability by saying this price decline will last for awhile. I have sat in many meeting where we put things like this in just so stockholders cannot say we did not warn them.

    https://www.lynascorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/190729-Quarterly-Activities-Report-1951503.pdf

    Absolutely true but where has your head been. The prices did go UP manly because of What XI said in MAY. Since then about August it became clear he was not going to use REO in the TW and prices have gone down since. Prices have dropped to there lowest point since March ~April 2017. So events sice this statement was made have totally taken all value from the statement. Zero on floor pricing

    https://www.lynascorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/171003-Annual-Report-and-Appendix-4G-1721565.pdf

    Lynas’ approach to reduce pricing volatility for its customers includes:
    • Promoting fixed pricing to its direct customers, set for periods relevant to customer operations;
    • Developing long term contracts that include clauses that aim to reduce price variations for end users such as car makers and wind turbine manufacturers.


    Wish you would give a page # sorry I cannot find the reference what you say does not support the floor price to protect Lynas in fact both statements seem to talk about protecting the customer. I believe that keeping a great relations with Customers is very high on Lynas priority list as it should be. Not reducing prices as market goes down goes against this. There is a delay from street prices to Lynas sales revenue. I am sure there is a formula to protect both sides from sudden changes. Both parties have to remain competitive. That makes for a great relation.

    and these

    https://www.lynascorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/171102-Investor-Presentation-1735525.pdf

    § Key end use customers are seeking security of supply and relative price stability

    All NdPr agreements include supply commitments over time and formula pricing (not spot)
    Ok this is the 2017 investor presentation which I have used many times. I have never said they use Spot pricing. I have even referred to 90 day lag. Stabilizing the Price is important to both parties. But remaining competitive is also important. Paying higher prices than compotation makes internal comparisons difficult.

    https://www.lynascorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Lynas-AGM-Presentation-2017.pdf

    Stable pricing and contractual terms over the length of vehicle programs Still no floor still uses formulas that track market. Stable is not fixed or a floor.

    First you did lots of hard work thank you. Japan does pay a premium to Lynas I calculate this every Q it is usually about 5% but I have seen it as high as 10%. that is very good for Lynas. Customers paying to high a premium over Street price hurts their ability to compete on the every day smaller motors. Let me be clear Japan will never let Lynas fail. They have set up a vehicle for this it is called JARE. JARE forgave over AUD 40M to Lynas in Q4 to help them with 2025. If lower prices cause Lynas to not have the funds for 2025 then JARE will loan or give it to them at great rates.

    https://www.lynascorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/171102-Investor-Presentation-1735525.pdf

    These customers put cash into JARE and that will help Lynas. But the customers treat this differently it can be Goodwill CAP EX or market development. Paying higher prices just make the product look more expensive and This messes things up. Japan INC. will use JARE to help out. For many this looks like it is all the same pool so why do it this way but in terms of business finance it is very different.

    Rember your argument only a poor salesman would sell something below cost. Well it applies to Lynas customers as well. If they are selling a power window motor which is a simple design with no controller so lots of NdPr. And the plant is paying too much for that NdPr then they lose a sale. You think a lot about protecting Lynas. Lynas says a lot about protecting their customers. Try seeing more things from the Lynas customer point of view.

    This will all come out fine I just think the stock holders are in for a small shock before we get there. JMO but I think we see a SP of $1.50 or lower before things get better. Ask and I will explain why. It all has to do with traditional metrics. Because of Wess I think that 2.25 is a magical price. I expect a bounce to 2.30 When it breaks through 2.25 it goes to $2.00 fairly fast. then a slow drift to $1.50. It may go lower but I do not think so. I will not buy at $1.50 unless I see an improving WW economy. Yes I cold miss a great opportunity but it is just one of many.


 
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