Hi cengizuykunInteresting read and just further confirms my...

Hi cengizuykun

Interesting read and just further confirms my thoughts, which are:-

2009 was the year that broadcast the rare earth phenomenon to the world, hundreds of articles pointing out why it was so important or how dire the situation was with supply. Lots of techo graphs showing clearly that demand is strong and going to get stronger, a real need exists. Not hard to see why rare earth was a popular investment to look at.

2010 will be the year of discounting some players who are not setting up refining and supply infrastructure systems, on the other side of this coin is the premium that will be placed on those who do have advanced structures. This will be the year where the market looks deeper into the rare earth story to find out what is actually happening, who, where and when the real rare earth story unfolds.

At some point in 2010, perhaps way after the kg basket has shot past $30 a spotlight is going to shine on who can actually deliver this stuff and when. In my opinion it is this spotlight on the real confirmed suppliers which will make last years interest in rare earth look timid in comparison to the natural consequence of what many want and few have. The shear complexity of mining, stock piling the concentrate onto the very complex and detailed requirements for the refinery, these things take years to draw up let alone to plan a plant with all the vigorous regulatory requirements for a RE refinery, it is a massive task which takes many years.

Yet Lynas has it all and to get to this point all they did was a tiny dilution, yes a tiny dilution! which not only breathed life into Lynas but gives it the first cab off the rank status which will be worth every penny and more, we will look back and say wow how cheap was that

So what do Lynas have.

A massive resource.
A massive stock pile of mined and separated concentrate.
All permits to transport and export.
Refining plant in Malaysia being constructed (not planned or proposed) with all design and build contracts set in place. All permits and regulatory requirements in place, which includes a very attractive tax regime for a period of 12 years.
As many product sales contracts as they want right now all signed with no upper limit on prices, on my last look these were sitting around $350m US.

Most if not all these important things you would expect your average competitor to have, I have never been lucky enough in business not to have competitors snapping at my heels for all of my 40 years in business, but for the life of me I have never seen a perfect storm develop like this, the REE price will go ballistic until somehow someone produces an excess of refined REE's and I just cannot see where it is going to come from in any short time. And if the worlds economy does better than just mildly recover this situation will only take on an exponential.

I am waiting for some sideswipe to my thinking which throws it all out, some left field play that changes the landscape, but right now I don't see one.

philh9