Maguro,I agree with your point except to me "Possible" is at #2,...

Maguro,

I agree with your point except to me "Possible" is at #2, just after "Impossible".

They are absolutes. Either something can occur or it cannot.

Something that is Possible may be unforseeable, but everything that is unforseeable must, by definition, be possible.

To me, Likely means "above 50%". An event which is more likely than unlikely may only have a 50.01%, but that result is still more likely than it not happening.

So for JH to say that Oil Flow is likely means that it was more than a 50% chance to happen. Does that mean that it is going to happen? No. By purely saying that it is LIKELY, he has indicated that it also might NOT happen.

- Karl