VA Could Lead to Liquidation, Which Means Losing Casino...

VA Could Lead to Liquidation, Which Means Losing Casino Licences—A Huge Risk for CTFE/FEC

The biggest risk of voluntary administration (VA) is that it could lead to liquidation, which would mean The Star’s casino licences are completely lost.

For CTFE/FEC, this is a nightmare scenario, because:
✅ Queen’s Wharf operations would be halted indefinitely.
✅ The casino licence would need to be reissued from scratch.
✅ CTFE/FEC would need to find a new operator—or become the operator themselves (unlikely).
✅ If no suitable operator is found, the entire business model of Queen’s Wharf could be in jeopardy.

If VA leads to liquidation, CTFE/FEC’s $3.6 billion investment in Queen’s Wharf would be at extreme risk.

1️⃣ Refinancing Gives CTFE/FEC Full Financial Control Without Overpaying

✅ Becoming the sole lender means CTFE/FEC dictate The Star’s future financial decisions.
✅ They control whether The Star restructures, sells assets, or enters administration.
✅ If The Star struggles again, CTFE/FEC can dictate a takeover at a lower price.
✅ It’s a lower-risk way to gain influence over The Star without spending billions upfront.

Instead of paying ~$1.3B+ for an immediate buyout, CTFE/FEC secure control for ~$630M, keeping future options open.

2️⃣ Avoids Paying a Premium for The Star Now, While Still Securing a Future Takeover

If CTFE/FEC launch an immediate buyout, they might have to offer $0.30–$0.40 per share, costing $1.3B–$1.7B.
This risks overpaying for a struggling business with uncertain earnings.
By refinancing instead, they pay only $630M upfront and can acquire The Star later at a potentially lower valuation.

If The Star’s financials worsen after refinancing, CTFE/FEC can take over at a lower price in the future.

3️⃣ Refinancing Also Blocks Competitors from Taking Over The Star

If Blackstone, Bally’s, or private equity firms are considering a bid, CTFE/FEC can block them by becoming The Star’s primary creditor.
As the main lender, CTFE/FEC control which takeover offers are accepted.
They prevent a situation where a competitor buys The Star and threatens Queen’s Wharf’s operations.

By refinancing, CTFE/FEC shut out rival bidders while keeping full control of The Star’s future.

4️⃣ Regulatory Approval Will Be Easier Than a Full Buyout

A full buyout would require extensive regulatory approvals, delaying the process.
Regulators might scrutinize foreign ownership concerns if CTFE/FEC attempt to buy The Star outright.
✅ Refinancing is a financial transaction, meaning it faces fewer regulatory hurdles.
✅ It ensures continuity of operations, which is in the government’s interest.

This approach is much faster and cleaner than a full acquisition.

5️⃣ Future Downside Protection for CTFE/FEC

✅ If The Star successfully restructures, CTFE/FEC remain in control as the main creditor.
✅ If The Star collapses again, CTFE/FEC dictate how it is sold or acquired.
✅ Worst case, they still recover their debt investment.

Refinancing gives CTFE/FEC flexibility—they gain control now but don’t take on full business risk immediately.

6️⃣ Final Verdict: Refinancing is the Smarter Move for CTFE/FEC

✅ CTFE/FEC gain financial control without committing billions upfront.
✅ They avoid overpaying for a distressed company while keeping takeover options open.
✅ They block competitors from gaining influence over The Star’s assets.
✅ Regulatory approvals will be easier than a full buyout.
✅ If The Star fails again, CTFE/FEC dictate the restructuring or takeover at better terms.

CTFE/FEC should move quickly to refinance The Star’s debt and take control before other bidders or lenders complicate the process.