ATG articore group limited

Agree with your outlook sir, except that I think the stock is...

  1. 33 Posts.
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    Agree with your outlook sir, except that I think the stock is worth $20+ over a 3 year horizon. Here's some additional thoughts, apologies for length. Financial fundamentals (conservative assumptions):- FY21 Revenue: ~600M (H1 actual:352M)- FY24 Revenue: $1B (CAGR of 18-20%; seems conservative, considering current growth rate, including Jan 21, is ~100%)- FY24 Gross profit after paid acquisition costs (GPAPA): 30% / $300M (conservative given that FY21 H1 was 28.3%, a 2.6% improvement on FY20 H2 and management showed clear intent on the earnings call to continue to invest to improve GPAPA further)- FY24 Opex: ~$100M through prudent cost control (FY21 H1 $45M)- FY24 EBITDA: ~$200M- Assume it trades on a very modest 20x EBITDA, valuation = $4B = ~$16 per share (263M shares on issue)- Plus $500M net cash balance = another $2 per share- Random comparison: Altium has EBITDA of ~100M but a market cap of $3.7BOther tailwinds / factors that provide confidence:- Strong institutional shareholder base - includes JPM, MUFG, Blackrock, Osmium, Perennial, Challenger and Blackbird, which was an early investor. A lot of financial wisdom in this group!- The founder remains the largest shareholder and director. I'm glad he's still on the team!- New CEO has very strong reputation and credentials; very incentivized to grow the share price; and I thought he did well in his first analyst call. Hopefully an under-promise and over-deliver type of CEO! The CFO is also great - keeps it simple.- Growing cash balance provides option to do acquisitions. 2018 acquisition of TeePublic obviously a brilliant buy. Do more of these!- RBL is currently under the radar in Australian financial press; gets very little mainstream coverage. This will change when it gets admitted to ASX200. - Two thirds of the business is in the biggest market in the world: USA. Huge room to grow there. Also, currency headwinds will likely unwind when AUD goes back to 65-70c. - Attractive acquisition target provides another option for material share price increase. As this is now a large position for me, would appreciate any comments that identify errors, flaws or risks that I am missing!
 
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(20min delay)
Last
22.5¢
Change
-0.005(2.17%)
Mkt cap ! $64.02M
Open High Low Value Volume
23.0¢ 23.0¢ 21.0¢ $9.85K 44.66K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
1 10663 22.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
23.0¢ 65213 3
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Last trade - 16.10pm 11/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
ATG (ASX) Chart
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