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clock Created with Sketch. 23/02/21
19:48
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Originally posted by APK88:
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Agree with your outlook sir, except that I think the stock is worth $20+ over a 3 year horizon. Here's some additional thoughts, apologies for length. Financial fundamentals (conservative assumptions):- FY21 Revenue: ~600M (H1 actual:352M)- FY24 Revenue: $1B (CAGR of 18-20%; seems conservative, considering current growth rate, including Jan 21, is ~100%)- FY24 Gross profit after paid acquisition costs (GPAPA): 30% / $300M (conservative given that FY21 H1 was 28.3%, a 2.6% improvement on FY20 H2 and management showed clear intent on the earnings call to continue to invest to improve GPAPA further)- FY24 Opex: ~$100M through prudent cost control (FY21 H1 $45M)- FY24 EBITDA: ~$200M- Assume it trades on a very modest 20x EBITDA, valuation = $4B = ~$16 per share (263M shares on issue)- Plus $500M net cash balance = another $2 per share- Random comparison: Altium has EBITDA of ~100M but a market cap of $3.7BOther tailwinds / factors that provide confidence:- Strong institutional shareholder base - includes JPM, MUFG, Blackrock, Osmium, Perennial, Challenger and Blackbird, which was an early investor. A lot of financial wisdom in this group!- The founder remains the largest shareholder and director. I'm glad he's still on the team!- New CEO has very strong reputation and credentials; very incentivized to grow the share price; and I thought he did well in his first analyst call. Hopefully an under-promise and over-deliver type of CEO! The CFO is also great - keeps it simple.- Growing cash balance provides option to do acquisitions. 2018 acquisition of TeePublic obviously a brilliant buy. Do more of these!- RBL is currently under the radar in Australian financial press; gets very little mainstream coverage. This will change when it gets admitted to ASX200. - Two thirds of the business is in the biggest market in the world: USA. Huge room to grow there. Also, currency headwinds will likely unwind when AUD goes back to 65-70c. - Attractive acquisition target provides another option for material share price increase. As this is now a large position for me, would appreciate any comments that identify errors, flaws or risks that I am missing!
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