Tooluck, IMO the current SP does not reflect the most optimistic set of data. I think the price probably reflects your view of likely royalties, around $25 million. I think royalties are likely to be around $30 million. There is plenty of space for the royalty to suprise on the upside, if so, we should see the price rise. If it meets your/my expectation, it will probably remain flat.
It's all guesswork, but I can't see them not selling most of the 90million dose pa capacity. 60 governments with orders should provide a forward order book for at least 1 year at this level of production.
P.S. Point is, it doesn't matter what some posters expectations are, I agree they are far-fetched, what matters is what expectations the SP reflects.
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