I don't quite see why 2012 will be the year for takeover tussles (as much as I would like it to be - I hold CRF).
The article strikes me as being a bit of a puff-piece for REITS - the only real argument is the yield differential on property which is valid so long as yields hold up and there's no guarantee that they will in the event of a severe economic slump. The article mentions sovereign wealth funds as buyers but doesn't provide any evidence of that.
After the interim report in Feb 2012, the next interesting development will be at the start of March 2012, when S&P will announce changes to the ASX indices and likely inclusion of CRF.
If the shareprice doesn't move up at that point, I'd interpret that as a clear sign of existing holders selling into the increased volume. We'll see then if this talk of the hedge funds holding CRF for 18 months-3 years holds true. I would give that statement more credence if it were coming from hedge funds themselves (and even then only with copious amounts of salt), rather than the CEO.
Still, pro-forma distributions of 12c (if delivered) provide decent support of c6% yield at below $1.80.
Main concern for me at the moment is whether asset values hold up, especially as bricks-and-mortar retail is getting thumped by the Amazon/internet.
CRF Price at posting:
$1.72 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
