Relentless sell down, page-82

The only question that we have to ask is: Who is selling now at this level?

Vocus does not have any substantial shareholders, i.e. above 5% holding, does it? Well, except for CGF which has just appeared on the register. What is CGF's average price? I've done some tally and found out that it's significantly higher than what it is today. Is CGF selling at a loss now? Really?

The only answer I can come out with is it's done by shorters, or even possibly CGF who's pushing price down (only they have loads of volume up their sleeves to sell it down and then accumulate at lower price).

Look at Telstra and Spark which is supposedly ex-growth. They have a PER of circa 17 now..Looking at the run rate of $95-100M EBITDA for last quarter for Vocus, and the confirmation that the recent quarter's targets have been smashed, targeting a NPAT of circa $200M out of the $400M EBITDA, Vocus can very comfortably command a $3400M mkt cap (circa current price level, which means that this price level is the bottom most already imo.). Note that this is assuming Vocus is growing very slowly (or not at all) for the coming years.

However, with the existing fibre capacity sitting probably at below 20%, and with NextGen acquired, and with M2 to be fully integrated, and with NBN market share grab to target for 15% eventually, and with potential submarine cable projects to deliver, and data centre connections to make, and corporate customers to cross-sell to, there's plenty of options to GROW at a reasonable rate. So, I will say that it can easily command a PER of 20, and possibly even up to 25, which means that the mkt cap can get to anywhere between $6.50-$8.15 in the short term.

Hence, I've been accumulating for the past week..