Protected property, Alex? STB paid about $1 for Colluli (like beads paid to American Indians for their land), and the Eritrean government are no fools. Maybe STB paid $1 for a reason, though- to have a company build up the resource- and what a resource it is! However, the government will get back its $1 and so much more. Colluli *is* a good and strategic asset. There is now way- again, in my opinion- that the Eritrean government will boot out STB, when it is STB that can develop the resource. Why would the govt and China do a deal? Someone has to develop the land, and it is STB who have done that perfectly. STB have good relations with the govt, from what I read. It's a symbiotic thing, between STB and the Eritrean government.
So, could Eritrea have afforded to pay development money for the STB resource? I doubt it. Can STB pay solely for development? Doubt that, too. This is where China may come in (as Eritrea's preferred partner). CHN management spoke of the concerns they had in getting traditional sources of finance, given Eritrea's nationalism and sanctions. So they sold prior to needing that. Same situation here, I reckon. There will be loads of countries (or private companies) who can afford $750m and be guaranteed supply of potash. STB is about 50% cheaper capex than other companies of its ilk. However, open-pit mining of potash hasn't been one before, so remains somewhat "experimental".
Not without risk, but look at the market cap!
STB Price at posting:
43.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
