Thank you Albie for posting the report.Quoting Bloomberg:“Japan...

Thank you Albie for posting the report.

Quoting Bloomberg:
“Japan plans to almost double its stockpile of anti-flu drugs.
NO TIMEFRAME WAS PROVIDED TO BOOST THE STOCKPILE.
GlaxoSmithKline Plc's Relenza will account for about 10 percent of Japan's supplies”.

Quoting Taylor Collison:
We note the intention of the Japanese is to double existing stockpiles (28m Tamiflu®, 1.4m Relenza™), where we expect a 25% overall Relenza™ component, implying potential royalties of A$25m to Biota.

Quoting Bioshares:
Biota estimates the replenishment market is worth around US$1 billion
a year, with Relenza gaining between 15%-20% of that market.
Biota has an estimated $70 million in cash. It is capitalised at $66 million with up to $80 million in further royalties

COMMEMTS: Those who were impressed with Taylor Collison and Bioshare report should take note that this is BAD news. Both reports predicted cash neutral 08/09 on optimistic Relenza royalty predictions.

The Bloomberg reported clearly show NO TIME FRAME was provided. Thus Taylor Collisson was EXTREMELY BULLISH predicting the sale is completed before 30 June 09 and FORMING 25% market share. EVEN on such extreme optimism on the time, the sale FALLED SHORT as it is only 10% which means AT THE VERY BEST achieving 40% of the prediction.

What about Bioshares? Bioshare mathematics has the hall marks of a 6 year old mathematics talent. They reported cash assets at the end of 1Q is $70m contrasting sharply with Peter Cook’s statement the cash balance at the end of Sept was $55m.
On Bioshares OWN statement of Relenza capturing 15% to 20% of market share, they predicted $20m Relenza royalties for 4 years.

Check the mathematics:
$1B x 15% = $150m sale @ 7% = $10.5m
$1B x 20% = $200m sale @ 7% = $14m

Oops poor sod estimated $80m of royalties!
Worst still, the Japanese ordered 10% NOT 15% or 20%. This should also be taken in the context that Relenza has a helping hand from Daiichi Sankyo in Japan. Daiichi Sankyo in promoting Lani provide a the Japanese authorities with a higher awareness of Relenza. Tamiflu also had very bad press reports from some adolescence suicides. Despite these factors Relenza took 10%, what the chance of capturing 15 to 20% or 25% market share elsewhere?

COCLUSION: The report clearly reveal the BUBBLY EXUBERANCE in the brokers reports!