relenza in wall street journal

In a recent Wall Street Journal article (October 19), which addressed the shortfall in the US of antiviral influenza drugs, a GlaxoSmithkline (GSK) representative was quoted as saying "we are looking at whether and, if so, how much we can increase production" (of Relenza). (see front page of the B section).

Some history: Soon after Relenza was commercially released by GSK in 1999/00, the company decided to limit production and marketing of the drug. GSK assumed that there would only be a small niche market for Relenza. Events over the last two years (increasingly bad flu seasons, the emergence of avian flu, bioterror threats) have shown that this was an incorrect assumption, and the WSJ quote indicates that GSK have belatedly recognised this. This augurs very well for Biota's litigation of GSK. Indeed, it looks like GSK are now attempting to position themselves so that the case can be resoloved in the mediation stage (i.e. without going to trial). If the case does go to trial, and Biota are successful, Aust analysts have speculated that Biota would likely receive between $100-200mill in damages.