relenza production

Comments on this board are still understating relenza production. Remember this comment from Garnier:

Charlotte Moore
Friday October 28, 2005
The Guardian

Chief executive Jean-Pierre Garnier, speaking after Glaxo posted strong third-quarter results, said: "We are pulling out all the stops to do everything we can to be ready to help various governments to have their planning in place at the time, and if, there is a catastrophic event."

The vaccines division was one of the company's best performing sectors in the third quarter, increasing sales by 20% to £399m. Total group sales grew by 11% to £5.47bn from £4.9bn while tight cost controls helped to push profits before tax up 21% to £1.75bn from £1.45bn.

Glaxo is also increasing production of its drug Relenza, which reduces the symptoms of flu. The World Health Organisation has suggested that governments stockpile anti-viral therapies such as Relenza and Roche's Tamiflu to use as an aggressive treatment if an outbreak of the virus occurs.

Roche is struggling to produce enough Tamiflu as demand has exploded in recent months with the number of bird flu cases spreading around the globe. Yesterday it said it would stop supplying American pharmacies with the drug to ensure it had sufficient stocks available ahead of the flu season.

Glaxo said yesterday it is prepared to issue special licences to allow other companies to produce Relenza to keep up with the strong demand. Mr Garnier said: "Even with our factories going 24 hours a day, seven days a week, we can't come close to what the world needs. So we have said that we will work with partners."

GSK are organising additional manufacture due to the demand being impossible to meet with only the use of GSK production lines. What are these lines? We have Garnier stating several in the UK (ie at least three) along with France and Boronia. We have other GSK production capacity in the US available, we have Hungary organising production, we have India and Taiwan. There are undoubtedly several more.

NO-ONE RAMPS UP PRODUCTION TO THIS UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL WITHOUT THE EXPECTATION OF SELLING THE OUTPUT. Especially a company like GSK!

What are the production capacities of a GSK production line?

We can only make an estimate based on Garnier's report that 20 M courses would be produced in France in 2006. Many here have assumed this meant it took 14 months to manufacture. It clearly does not. Relenza can be made very much faster, taking 7 processes to Tamiflu's 9 processes. The French plant started producing no earlier than late October according to GSK. Customers have already leaked the fact that they will be taking delivery in March/April (this from Australia and Hong Kong). 20 M in about 5 months then. Perhaps 50 M in a full year, perhaps a bit less, but certainly not 20 M!!!

How many plants?

Probably 10, certainly not 2!!

What global production may be reached in a full year?

I am betting on up to 500 M.

How many by the time the royalties are paid in May?

22 M being 20 M from the current production run being delivered in March/April and 2 M from the old warehouse supply, worth at least $40 M to BTA. Of course next year the income may well be $0.5-1 B in royalties.

Will this satisfy demand?

Not even close. We need billions of courses in advance of LANI.

Can the world afford this level of protection costing up to $100 B over several years?

Yes, very easily, indeed we cannot afford not to invest in it.

Do your own research as there are plenty of sources of information. We do not need self appointed experts and analysts to perform these simple sums. BTA valuations are currently based on an unwillingness to even address the big picture - witness the laughable Patterson's report.