SNT syntara limited

1.82%

5.6¢

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jeremycbrowne

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18/08/19

12:16

Post #: 40028553
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Originally posted by Ousia: ↑

Market cap: $76m
Cash at June 30: $31m
R&D tax rebate available: $6m

Under continuous disclosure, CEO would have to immediately report to the market if there was any negative news from BI or if counterparties had walked away from a potential LOXL2 deal.

BI to report NASH Phase IIa results in October
If BI choose to progress to Phase III for NASH, an additional $58m is paid to Pharmaxis (will likely conduct a phase IIb before making this call)
If BI choose to progress to Phase III for diabetic retinopathy, an additonal $39m is paid to Pharmaxis
LOXL2 deal is still being negotiated - potentially, a $25m-$50m upfront payment being received this FY.

High probability that FDA will approve Bronchitol early next year, which will trigger a US$10m payment to PXS. In addition to this payment, approval will likely see the Bronchitol and Aridol business profitable from sales to the tune of $10-15m in FY21. With European and Russian sales also picking up, the Bronchitol/Aridol business is likely to fully fund PXS' ambitious drug development program from FY22.

In summary, PXS presently has an enterprise value in the region of $40m, but there is around $160m worth of potential milestones that could be paid to Pharmaxis over the next 1-2 years, plus $10-15m profit from Bronchitol and Aridol sales.

Recent selling was due to retail investor nervousness/impatience/unfounded conspiracy theories and stop losses being triggered at 21c and 20c. Haven't seen which brokers sold yesterday or the day before, but can see that Comsec and CMC markets have done most of the selling over last week.

Like any biotech, there is plenty of clinical risk here, but PXS's risk reward profile looks attractive IMO.

Positive results/committment to progress to further clincial trials from BI in October would be massive (NASH is second only to alzheimers in terms of market potential and unmet medical need), and will likely immediately see a 60c share price.

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Bell Potter - unchanged opinion, despite fall.

Retain Buy (speculative) and Valuation of $0.57Given there was not much new information in the audited financials vs. the unaudited numbers released in July’19, we have not made any changes to our forward forecasts. Our valuation for PXS remains unchanged at A$0.57/sh. We retain Buy (Spec).

PXS Price at posting: 19.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last 5.6¢		Change 0.001(1.82%)		Mkt cap ! $91.05M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.5¢	5.6¢	5.5¢	$28.02K	501.5K

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2	46257	5.6¢

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5.7¢	20000	1

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0.057	20000	1
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