your post really shows how much you are misunderstanding the economics of this project. no joint venture partner will be subscribing for 20% equity (or $360m). because they could just buy ASM for less than that to obtain 100% interest in the project + 100% of KMP, the cattle, the worms and everything in between.
you could argue on that basis ASM is so undervalued. but really, the market is sending a message that this project is dead in the water.
in any case, you should not be using the development cost as the basis of forming a price on 20% project equity. it needs to be tied back to the NPV, which on a post-tax basis at 1.58B AUD, is less than the development cost of the mine at 1.68B. is there any logical reason you would develop this project if you are paying out more than what you would be getting back? this is the fundamental problem with dubbo right now. that's why we need either super cheap government debt or some other type of concessional funding to get the project done or KMP to be thrown into the picture at full tilt. if KMP was pushing out $200m AUD EBITDA dubbo would be under construction right now.
ASM Price at posting:
$1.35 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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