Tight Supply: Persistent shortages in tungsten mining are driving prices higher. On January 7, black tungsten concentrate prices rose to an average of 143,750 yuan/standard mt, up 0.52% from the previous trading day.
Demand Drivers: Pre-holiday restocking by manufacturers and anticipation of further supply tightening are boosting market sentiment.
Outlook: With high-grade tungsten ore resources depleting and strict controls on Chinese mining volumes, tungsten prices are expected to see steady long-term growth.
Minor Metal Sector Performance
Market Movement: The minor metal sector rose by 2.82% on January 7, continuing gains from the previous day.
Top Performers: Orient Tantalum Industry hit the daily price limit, while other key players like Long Magnetic Technology, BOKE New Materials, Western Materials, and Eontec also posted significant gains.
Rare Earth Market
Price Trends: Rare earth prices rose due to pre-holiday stockpiling by metal plants and maintenance at separation facilities.
Production Halt: Many magnetic material enterprises are expected to stop production around January 20, limiting potential for further price increases.
Challenges: Despite improved production atmospheres, intense price negotiations between upstream and downstream players indicate ongoing market volatility.
Strategic Role: Rare earths are vital for high-end manufacturing, AI, and renewable energy applications.
Antimony Market
Domestic Stability: Prices for antimony ingots in China have remained stable, reflecting weak end-user demand and a wait-and-see sentiment.
Overseas Surge: In contrast, overseas antimony prices have surged to as high as $40,000/mt in Europe, marking a dramatic 250% increase over the past year.
Production Decline: Maintenance shutdowns at major Chinese antimony plants, coupled with winter mining challenges, are expected to reduce January production significantly.
Niobium Price Increases
Tight Supply: Limited niobium availability since late November has pushed prices higher.
Market Impact: Rising niobium prices, combined with gains in other minor metals, have supported the broader market's upward trajectory.
Policy Developments
New Reporting Requirements: The Ministry of Commerce revised its outward investment statistical system, adding rare earths, tantalum, zirconium, and other strategic minerals to reporting criteria.
Data Collection: Companies must now provide details on mining projects, including service life and recoverable reserves, reflecting tighter oversight of strategic resources.
Strategic Importance of Minor Metals
Essential for Advanced Industries: Minor metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are critical for high-tech sectors, including semiconductors, AI, military, and renewable energy.
Supply Constraints: Geopolitical issues, such as disruptions in Myanmar’s rare earth supply, are raising cost curves and driving prices higher.
Stock Recommendations
Rare Earth Leaders: Analysts favor China Northern Rare Earth for its dominance in light rare earths and JL MAG Rare-Earth for high-end magnetic materials.
Tungsten Opportunities: China Tungsten High-tech is well-positioned to benefit from long-term price growth in tungsten.
AI and Military Links: Stocks like Orient Tantalum Industry and Western Superconducting are highlighted for their exposure to new material demand driven by AI and military advancements.
Growth in Semiconductors: The rising demand for tantalum and niobium in semiconductor and display manufacturing is expected to drive market growth for related companies.
Market Insights and Research Highlights
Dongguan Securities: Minor metals are classified as "new productive forces" due to their pivotal role in emerging technologies and industries.
Minsheng Securities: Emphasis on strategic advantage metals aligns with AI and military demand. Tungsten and rare earths are key beneficiaries of ongoing technological and geopolitical shifts.
Guojin Securities: Rare earths, particularly from Myanmar, face ongoing supply challenges. These constraints, combined with growing global demand, present significant opportunities for rare earth stocks.
Future Outlook
Sustained Growth: With persistent supply constraints and increasing demand from high-tech sectors, prices for minor metals are expected to remain robust in 2025.
Strategic Focus: Governments and industries are likely to invest more in securing strategic metal supplies, ensuring long-term growth and stability in this critical sector
ASM Price at posting:
51.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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