ARU arafura rare earths ltd

Remaining equity of only importance

  1. 6,813 Posts.
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    With debt confirmed locked as recently advised in quarterly. With many very favorable developments globally particularly ex China benchmark pricing.
    With Insto now showing their colors re Citi - taking advantage of delays which whilst disappointing certainly it is not uncommon particularly this industry. But make no mistake ARU are certainly in a far more favorable position to that of Lynas at a similar point in time AND through quality debt/equity set up - unheralded Aus Gov support especially input tax credits of 10 years - ARU will advance the Nolan's mine to oxides with additional heavies in a very direct pathway than that of which Lynas endured - much has been learned of Lynas issues and of course so much is highly favorable to that when Lynas was trying to establish a foothold in the RE supply chain and the incredible capital expenditure and issues they endured.

    The only focus really need be the equity = FID. As advised management are actually delivering on exactly what was advised. Many here including myself thought mass dilution when a 1 billion target was advised and a long process to achieve such. Yet management are delivering equity with minimal dilution to the benefit of shareholders and yes it's little surprise the Insto's are hitting hard and accumulating at the low lets say manipulated premiums. I was pleased to see Birch advise DC stated 60% cornerstone equity - absolutely in line with what management advised then going for remaining amounts to Insto/Funds - retail. They are on track to deliver all be it taking time.
    If they can deliver advised 60% equity cornerstone which appears in sight now with German input - on the similar highly favorable terms of convertible notes as to that Aus Gov 200 million then it would be a terrific outcome to achieve such with minimalized dilution then moving on to Insto/Fund/Retail for remaining 40% equity. It's complex and it takes time. I am like all frustrated but seriously the highly favorable outcome to equity - FID is paramount to the future of ARU. No doubt other options were on the table - some we were advised have not progressed by either our management or other parties decisions/pathways - some other key new pathways have emerged re highly favorable German equity funding - it was and remains a liquid situation in establishing the best outcome to achieve the required equity whereby some pieces are removed and replaced by a significantly better option.

    Similarly the JV option. If this pathway is negotiated highly favorable to other options to close equity then we'll know when we need to know. Perhaps the JV is indeed the best solution/option for the remaining 40% equity bring it on. Either way we'll be diluted for that 40% remaining equity so bringing in a quality partner that can add far more than just equity in the way of project development/stage 2/further offtake as advised then bring it on.

    I'm very guilty of speculating way to much - throwing around willy nilly assumptions when it's clear the pathway forward is closing - sure the BEOT take full advantage but that's just the way it rolls as soon as Insto's arrive retail become passengers. Insto's can get it done - retail can not and Insto's want to make big for making it happen - we'll also make big - in due course. Buying at these levels whoooda thought at this late stage.

    All eyes firmly on the equity closure - all else extremely favorable is well established. BWTAH. DYOR and my waffle is just waffle aided by a myriad of shite medications.
 
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(20min delay)
Last
21.0¢
Change
0.005(2.44%)
Mkt cap ! $517.5M
Open High Low Value Volume
20.5¢ 21.5¢ 20.3¢ $1.784M 8.523M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
23 1351562 20.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
21.0¢ 366391 4
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Last trade - 16.10pm 13/08/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
ARU (ASX) Chart
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