Bagman,
my calculation wasn't at all *based* on a share price of 1c. Instead, it was based on GIP's own numbers, the amount of money they need in order to bring AD into production. As we all know that's roughly 250 million Dollars, 80% debt (200M) and 20% equity (50M) according to their own plan. GIP would have to pay back to the banks $350 million within 12 years after receiving the funds, regardless of the share price because that's the debt side of the deal.
Regarding the 50M equity you can choose whatever stock price you want, you'll end up in the Billions of shares anyway. Please keep in mind a cash raising of this size usually depresses the share price MASSIVLEY. Look at what the most recent cash raising did to the stock and imagine what a cash raising 20x-30x as big would possibly do. I very much doubt they could find enough buyers (other than Mr. Deep Pocket himself) for a deal of this size at all.
Other than an Eritrean gold find I can not see what could cause the share price to sustainably reach its 2010 (4c) or even 2008 (10c) levels. Hope won't return just like that, for no reason at all. So I view Eritrea as their last wild card. And it has to make a trick very soon.
So it's a fine line between keeping people's hopes up on one side and persuading them into fighting a lost cause on the other.
A question you should ask yourself: Assuming they found gold in Eritrea, wouldn't you prefer spending all the money they raise on a gold mine there rather than on a ceiling price crippled AD? I would! So even in a best case scenario I don't see AD become a tantalum producing mine. IMO AD is next to worthless, particularly in GIP's hands, and should the GIPsters not find anything in Eritrea, well... what's the value of the company going to be comprised of?
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