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25/12/24
03:48
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Originally posted by Lord Bell:
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Tomas for valuing a company one method is what they call DCF analysis ie they Discount all the cash flows ..helps to determine the present value of an investment based on its future cash flows formula DCF=CF1 divided by. (1+r)1 + CF2 divided by (1+r)2. etc just raising the powers with each subsequent cash flow. for each year. I don't use this method as it's very difficult to project cash flows ten years into the future ....as they say a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush..but I am happy to value a share at the average multiple of book Value in the industry ( Uranium Mining ) which is generally above three.....so three times book gives me a price of $1.84 times 3 = $5.52....A lower target would be twice book $3.68 as can be seen well above market price of $1.235.So unquestionably the price of Pen is well under its value...one might say the reason for this is no real cash flow from the mines sales .This is not true ...this is borne out by looking at Bannerman .No Sales..price $2.90 and a book Value of 60c a share almost five times book . So All I can say Pen has a lot of catching up to do...and it will catch up as Institutions get hungary realising the value in Pen. All the best to All at Christmas and New Year
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Great. A lesson in DCF valuation of a company. I'm so glad for the refresher after making this my business for 15 years. Bloody awesome.