PEN peninsula energy limited

Current market cap = 207m AUD$.Projected upside ~500%.Current...

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    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6698/6698491-90be3d4f36efcc952323383b32ecf7c9.jpg

    Current market cap = 207m AUD$.
    Projected upside ~500%.
    Current price = 1,30 AUD$
    Analysts price target = 3,7 AUD$
    Analysts price target is 284% higher than today.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6698/6698488-81f362a733e30aeb52db1e3e075cf84a.jpg

    Using only Ross and Kendrick (under licensing process):

    To calculate the market capitalization specifically for the Ross and Kendrick uranium deposits, we'll use the data from the image along with our earlier methodology.

    Ross (Production Area)

    • Resource: 6.4 million lbs U₃O₈
    • Production Estimate: 4.1 million lbs
    • Status: Fully licensed ISR production facility

    Kendrick (Production Area)

    • Resource: 19.8 million lbs U₃O₈
    • Status: Next sequential production area, permitting in progress

    Assumptions:

    • AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost): $50/lb (as before)
    • Current Uranium Market Price: $85/lb
    • Contracted Price (Ross): $67/lb

    1. Revenue Calculation

    Ross Deposit Revenue

    • Production Estimate: 4.1 million lbs
    • Average Contracted Price: $67/lb
      • 4.1M × $67 = $274.7 million

    Kendrick Deposit Revenue

    • Total Resource: 19.8 million lbs
    • Market Price: $85/lb
      • 19.8M × $85 = $1,683 million

    Total Potential Revenue:

    • Ross: $274.7 million
    • Kendrick: $1,683 million
    • Combined Total: $1,957.7 million

    2. Cost Calculation (AISC: $50/lb)

    Ross Production Costs

    • 4.1M × $50 = $205 million

    Kendrick Production Costs

    • 19.8M × $50 = $990 million

    Total Costs:

    • Ross: $205 million
    • Kendrick: $990 million
    • Combined Total: $1,195 million

    3. Gross Margin

    • Total Revenue: $1,957.7 million
    • Total Costs: $1,195 million
    • Gross Margin: $1,957.7M − $1,195M = $762.7 million

    4. Estimated Market Cap

    • Applying a 20-30% risk discount to reflect development and operational risks:
      • $610–$760 million

    5. Summary

    • Ross Estimated Market Contribution: ~$70 million (small-scale production, partially realized revenue).
    • Kendrick Estimated Market Contribution: ~$540–$690 million (significant future revenue potential).
    • Combined Estimated Market Cap for Ross & Kendrick:$610–$760 million US$

    This valuation assumes steady uranium market prices, production milestones being met, and no major delays in Kendrick's licensing and production commencement.



    $610–$760 million US$ = 978 AUD$ - 1.218B AUD$

    Current market cap = 207m AUD$.
    Projected upside ~500%.
    Current price = 1,30 AUD$
    Analyst price target = 3,7 AUD$
    Analyst price target is 284% higher than today.

 
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