If Soloo and Bambo can be tagged as stacked objectives then PE...

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trimilleniad

616 Posts.

89

08/02/21

01:10

Post #: 50780789
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Originally posted by PhillW: ↑

If there is a postponement then they better make sure that ONGC is still wishing to buy the asset just in case WPL use the new deferral to rescind their PE.

As far as I am concerned there is only three ways forward and PE is the 4th. Either FAR management miraculously announce that they have obtained funding ( I did say miraculously, after all they have had to have been doing something other than twiddling their thumbs), or, they announce a merger valuing FAR at 3c or the Remus sale becomes unconditional and we await any other bids. The PE sale to WPL is my least preferred outcome because it results in FAR sp bloodbath on relisting and keeps the FAR management team in jobs to go about life as if nothing has happened.

As OOO has stated, the oil window is closing. Sangomar was positioned to come on line to take advantage of the latter years of the oil window but drilling Gambia and if successful, then mucking about for a further 6 years to get to production is missing the high oil price window. And then if Gambia is a flop, God help us.

There are too many emotional traders in FAR. Their only thought is to drill Gambia to get some of their losses back, totally frozen by fear and blind to the fact that we are in a commodities bull market and those losses have a better chance of being reduced simply by investing in other stocks that actually have fundamentals. Emotions are what drives traders to not have the discipline to push the sell button even when looking at substantial losses. Lose 50% you have to double your money to break even.

Gambia is a huge risk/reward play, especially when noting how certain Cath was of Samo. A PE sale may (and I do say that hesitantly) have FAR trade up near 2.1c closer to bambo but realistically you have to factor in the missed opportunity having to wait another 9 months for that to occur. In the meantime the sp will be massacred. Good for those that want to average down I suppose.

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If Soloo and Bambo can be tagged as stacked objectives then PE and drilling the Gambia should be a better outcome for shareholders, rather than a TO. So after raising the question of a further delay, I can't see the justification for it unless there is a superior binding proposal from Reamus or someone else.

IMO FAR should prioritise the Soloo target over Bambo for risk management . The trouble is that confidence has been lost in the judgement of FAR management and that they will take the swing for six option.

Regarding long term oil price, most forecasts have oil price in the mid 60's for the long term.

FAR Price at posting: 1.1¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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