thanks for sharing ZM
a few key points, apart from the well known dependence of Helium for the following industries:
semiconductors
aerospace
telecommunications
medical etc
1) In 2015, spot price for Helium was between $USD200 - USD$250/mcf
- current spot price between USD $1750 - USD $2500/mcf
- a Texas based semi-conductor manufacturer recently paid USD $10,000/mcf - this was as a result of the potential loss impact. It was more beneficial to pay USD $10k than lose production and sales opportunities. Loss of one days revenue would significnatly impact all Semi Conductor manufacturers
- Semi-conductor fabrication manufacturers in light blue
- Looking forward to the next helium auction whereby i would expect RLT to have Iso containers available to maximize auction value...our last auction achieved USD$875, no reason why the next auction cannot achieve >USD$1500.00. If successful, i would expect RLT to continue this auction exercise quarterly?? which would significantly impact revenue and P+L until phase 2 completely operational in 2026.
2) USD DFC $500m loan
- teams have been onsite to assess the plant to the highest standards.
- DFC team collaborating with the other financier for the remaining USD $250m
- limited dilution for shareholders
- all sounds extremely positive, would hope for an announcement by end of Q1??
Renergen celebrates $500mn DFC nibble (energyvoice.com)
from June 2022
3) RLT share price AUD $2,20 currently trading at a forward EBITDA multiple of 0.4x...
- comparator energy transition company (assume listed on Nasdaq) has a market cap based on a forward EBITDA multiple of 12x...
- RLT matches this comparator company for volumes of gas produced in Phase 2, significant point of difference as RLT are not energy dependent,,,very important point of difference given consistent challenges of energy supply in Africa
- RLT profitability does not rely on government grants unlike the comparator company.
- RLT profitability is significantly higher as has 2 products, LNG and Helium. The comparator company only has 1 product for revenue
4) Loadshedding / Power requirements
- Phase 1 not impacted
- Phase 2 self sufficient - zero reliance on external power
Takeaway message - expect the RLT share price to be multiples of current levels once Phase 2 funding is approved, and RLT successfully lists on the NASDAQ to track to similar EBITDA forward earning multiples..
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