I've been following the story for a year and have only recently invested. First off I would like to discuss the Helium Backed Security, I personally believe this is a remarkable tactic that will disrupt global security markets in how companies will do raises and pre sales of their resources/products. This tactic allows Renergen to get money in the bank plus allocating sales on the spot market there is a total of:
1BCF: $230USD per 1 MCF
1BCF: $250USD per 1 MCF
1BCF: $275USD per 1 MCF
This implies to me there will be 300,000 securities worth of liquidity, taking into account the current spot price of Helium as a resource is around $1100-$1300USD per MCF which is what each security of that 300,000 is represented as making it a significant discount to the current spot prices. Helium end users such as Space Companies, Medical Companies and many more will be very interested in the pre purchase of this due to the general price per MCF companies are purchasing at between $600-$800USD. Helium has shown to double in spot price every 18-24 months making this an extremely interesting concept to end users.
I feel once this is officially released it will be followed up by a mass marketing campaign followed up by mass media attention.
Leading me into the next topic of the "Reserves Update". Renergen has executed a variety of successful drilling and off-take agreements that we have all witnessed in prior announcements some being:
Consol Glass 5 Year Deal
Linde 15 Year Deal
Messer 15 Year Deal
Helium24 10 Year Deal
ISI Automotive 10 Year Deal
The global usage of Helium is about 6BCF per year, Renergen with its off-take agreements and the Helium Backed Security is quite telling of how much they have to offer taking into consideration that Evander is still a potential Renergen has yet to explore. If Renergen release a reserve of
6BCF 1p this little Helium company is no longer little it has the ability to supply the entire planet for the equivalent of a year. In comparison imagine a hypothetical other mining explorer discover a resource of lithium or other that have the ability to supply global usage for a year it is massive. I expect global media attention from this from all that cover securities and business. I must admit my expectations are high for this particular announcement, Also taking into the account we already have 1.01BCF 1P.
In regards to Gas, the gas market as we have seen in the media is increasingly bullish it has run from $2mmBtu to $34mmBtu which is extremely relevant to Renergen as for every well we drill and get Helium we need to sell the LNG. I believe Renergens deals for LNG are between
$18-19mmBtu more or less yes we miss on this bull run but these deals were signed at around the $3mmBtu which is significantly higher and I don't anticipate the price of $34mmBtu to last long like all ATH's they also fall. But this is a massive positive as Europe and other continents come into winter I anticipate for the demand to increase quantitively. The rise in Gas prices I believe are due to Inflation, Lack of supply due to logistics and increase of demand for winter.
Cryo-Vacc, a topic that has seem to of vanished in comparison to Q1 of the year. I'm anticipating this to still be a work in progress in in perfecting the unit to meet client needs. I assume that it is silent as once all the anticipated Catalysts get released it will leave a quieter 2022 so I am hoping that the noise around it comes back for Q1 2022.
Phase 1 is coming upon as set to be commissioned in December of this year as per announcements, we can see Stefanos Tweets his excitement and anticipation of Phase 1 coming together. Once we are a producer Renergen will be able to continue to add revenue to their bank account and progress us in quarterly financial statements. Something I found quite positive is that Renergen has enough money to operate for another
4.79 Quarters. We have all witnessed the volatility of the share price over the past 12 months I'm hoping for stability once we are a producer, It removes a lot of the speculation of simply being a junior explorer once the proof of concept is up and running.
Phase 2 Funding, Presumably will not come cheap I'm anticipating quite a large cost for this but if the Reserves are as large as the maths in regard to the conversion rates from you Contingent to your Proven of 10%/50%/90% are somewhat accurate I don't see an issue in being able to get the funds regardless of how it is raised.
ASX200 is an interesting opportunity for Renergen to qualify for in 2022, the criteria is based around Volume and Market cap something I expect Renergen to of have resolved between Q4&Q1 of next year the current smallest Market Cap on the ASX300 is MND at $857M MC. For Renergen to for an example to match that we would roughly need a SP of $6.90 across the 123,560,000 shares (36,000,000 of those shares are on the ASX)
Is this possible is the question? Nobody has the answer to weather or not the SP will reach such highs but pending the official Reserves Update we should be able to mathematically calculate the SP value or receive one from one of the analyst companies. According to Blue Gems previous release they have valued Renergen at $5.19-$6.09 prior to any of the catalysts being anticipated and not including Cryo-Vacc or Evander. I feel this is something that particularly gets me excited as this provides the ability for large institutions to invest into Renergen such as Super Funds changing the dynamic of our liquidity.
The current T20 we can see that a lot have accumulated and some more so than others this only provides further confidence to myself.
