Came across a Bell Potter research report on WA1 - niobium...

Came across a Bell Potter research report on WA1 - niobium player which had very similar ebitda projections at about AUD500m/yr as does Renergen so did a comparison below:

WA1
Marketcap about AUD1 billion
Ebitda projections about AUD500m/yr
Capex needed maybe AUD1.5b?
No funds secured for capex as too early
Status - 2 years since discovery and maybe 5-10 years away from hitting AUD500m/yr of ebitda from a niobium mining operation
Bell Potter used x11 multiple to value the EV or marketcap at about AUD5.5b once doing AUD500m/yr in ebitda
Upside potential from AUD1b marketcap to AUD5.5b marketcap about x5

Renergen
Marketcap about AUD100m
Ebitda projections per a Mar 2023 guidance about AUD500m/yr
Capex needed US1.2b
Phase 2 production in 2027 - 3 years
US750m in debt secured
US150m nasdaq ipo pending
Remaining US300m could be raised later maybe as helium pre-sales to limit dilution
Using x11 ebitda multiple same as WA1 then Renergen would have the same AUD5.5b marketcap potential once ebitda is doing AUD500m/yr
Upside potential from AUD100m to AUD5.5b marketcap about x55


So in summary potential upside of x55 for Renergen versus x5 for WA1 from the current marketcaps.

Anyway that's my take