I've read a few times 1tcf of nat gas reserves is worth maybe $1billion in a takeover scenario.
So Renergen with 2P of 0.4tcf of methane hypothetically worth $400m and then what is 13.6bcf of helium worth on top of that? Consider nat gas has recently been going for US$2.5/mcf/mmbtu and helium at over US$2000/mcf and you conservatively take let's say US$750/mcf that's equates to (750/2.5) x 13.6 = 4.1tcf equivalent nat gas. So total maybe equivalent to 4.5tcf of nat gas so any takeover offer should be $4.5b in such a scenario who knows.
Any takeovers would only offer anything for proven commercial reserves. Renergen has barely scratched the surface so far. The reserves (1P) are based on only a third of the reserves area which itself is only 14% of the land area. Also note the reserves based on wells at only average about 120mcf/d raw gas at about 3% helium surrounding the plant. So about 200 to 300 wells needed for Phase 2.
If you wanted to increase reserves quickly all Renergen needs to do is wack some holes in the sandstone area drilled in 2019 and not included in the reserves as I understand it. It returned 850mcf/d raw gas at 12% helium!! As global helium is only 6bcf per year the focus to now seems to have been to only prove up enough reserves to underpin Phase 2. Drilling into the sandstone area Renergen could maybe quickly increase the helium reserves to 30bcf or even 50bcf who knows which would drastically increase the inground proven reserves and hence any valuation for any takeover offers.
This Shapiro guy is probably years behind the curve in my opinion. I'd say the likes of Linde have been making offer(s) going back a few years but Renergen has been determined to bring it to production themselves thus far by the look of it.
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