TOE 5.66% 25.0¢ toro energy limited

Regarding my comment about RH...not sure...you figure it out....

  1. 1,382 Posts.
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    Regarding my comment about RH...not sure...you figure it out.

    Regarding my valuation of this company being worth AT LEAST $750million, I simply use Toro's quarterly announcement. I'll explain...

    Toro's updated scoping study gives a pre-tax NPV of $832.8M at $85. But, lets say $81, to align with current Long Term Contract Price, that leaves us with an NPV of about $750M...pre-tax. So, after tax, lets say, $525M.

    The key here, is that this scoping study is just for Lake Maitland, in isolation!

    Now, only 100km north there are the 3 deposits - Lake Way, Centipede, and Milipede. With a combined 36Mlb of U308 indicated & measured resources. This hub is far better than the Lake Maitland deposit, and is what the environmental approval was written for. These are only a 30min drive from town/airport and much closer to power & gas infrastructure. This is where I believe we should have started building our hub by now.

    In addition, only 20km west of the 3 deposits, there is the exploration project of Dawson/Hinkler, currently with 9Mlb of indicated/inferred resources, with potential to expand. These pounds could easily be trucked to a processing hub located at Centipede/Milipede/Lake Way deposits.

    Now, what do you think is the combined NPV of Lake Way, Centipede, Milipede, Dawson, and Hinkler deposits?

    At the moment, I am ascribing an extremely conservative NPV of $225M to them. But, I believe at the current $81 LTC price, they would exceed Lake Maitland's NPV, especially as this hub could piggy-back on some of the Maitland built infrastructure capital (like the power station, and surface dewatering infrast etc), no? Hence I usually say...+$750M.

    That is how I arrive at this conservative figure.

    Coincidentally, when DYL was being valued by the market at $1.6Bn, Vimy was valued at $750M. While, this has now changed due to market sentiment, I believe it is still a reasonable coincident indicator of a conservative estimate of the value of Toro. But, we still need to complete 'substantial commencement' and we need to win the permit to mine. And I am aware that RH wants to rehash the approvals document...which further delays and complicates things.

    For me, RH continues to be THE impediment to this company.

 
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