reply to were off thread

US close this morning was 36.40 AUD so there'll need to be a fair rally tonight in order for there to be much of a gap up tomorrow.

We may see forty again this month but it'll depend a lot on the momentum of the herd...

4770 was a freak of history (top of bull market, breakout, etc. etc.) in my opinion so I don't think it'll happen again for a long time. To my mind that caps bhp at 40 so I'm expecting it to either drop straight through 31 to confirm a head and shoulders pattern or bounce off 31 and rally back to 40 before dropping and confirming a huge lower double top pattern. Either way the technical target is around $16 which is about where it would need to be in order to get back to a reasonable 4 or 5% divi.

I've heard that bear market rallies are often only a day or a day and a half so if we gap up tomorrow that could be as far as we go before dropping down to 31 again.