The following thread in history gives a good run down on...

The following thread in history gives a good run down on Redflex. Good move in the stock today and going much higher over the long term


Subject re: watch rdf double in price
Posted 18/07/03 23:40 - 295 reads
Posted by Paul100
Post #113056 - in reply to msg. #113019 - splitview

hilldweller
If you know where to look(and the major investors do) there is lots of information about this company that you can find to track what is happening. There are lots of news articles on the web. See a couple below.

If you are really interested drop me a email to [email protected] and i will give you some tips on how to follow this stock

Rough revenue is pretty easy. Its in every traffic announcement and its always been the same except in the last 2 where the company reduced the Australia dollar average because of exchange and then increased it back in the latest announce .The announcements always say something like 20 approaches, value of contract 10M. Length on contract 5 years with option extentions. If you go back through these announces it always comes at a average of 100K per approach per annum.

Capital costs per approach are a bit less accurate but are somewhere between 80 and 120K

Variable costs probably around 15%(and falling) excluding depn which is 20% per year for 5 years

At the end of Dec 02 they had 103 approaches(as per report) and the company was pretty much at breakeven. That is the 103 approaches was covering all there costs to run the company.

Therefore applying basic accounting(I am a qualified accountant) this means that for every new approach they install 65% of the revenue goes to profit and 85% to cash

So what you have here is potential money making machine as more and more approaches are installed. The big key is that the contracts are a minimun of 5 years, the revenue is recurring and the process is highly automated

The simplist analogy is that it's like a snowball rolling down a hill. Its starts of small and insignificant but as it rolls down the hill it gets bigger and starts to roll even faster.

The snowball only started rolling in about march this year but it is now moving

Sample articles

Wednesday, May 28, 2003
Running the red will cost the green
Signal camera in Santa Ana will send violators a fine of $321.




RELATED LINKS
• Click to see map



By ZAHEERA WAHID
The Orange County Register


SANTA ANA – Green yellow red. Stop! Or not.

In Santa Ana, 442 people ran the red light at McFadden Avenue and Harbor Boulevard in the five days beginning May 19. And they're not getting away with it.

A new camera system caught every violator on digital video, and soon they'll receive letters warning them to heed the traffic lights. Beginning June 19 – after a 30-day grace period – those letters will switch from mere warnings to hefty $321 fines on red-light runners.

At one of Santa Ana's busiest intersections, the camera system logged three times the violators as Fullerton did when it installed a camera at Harbor Boulevard and Orangethorpe Avenue a few months ago.

The intersection has been the site of 67 injury accidents and in the vicinity of five traffic deaths in the past three years. Santa Ana police pay $5,200 monthly to lease the camera system.

Had it not been for the grace period, the 442 drivers caught running the red light during the first five days would have shelled out $141,882 in fines.




****

Red-light cameras coming to Chicago
City engineer hopes Peoria will follow suit

July 14, 2003

By MIKE RAMSEY
of Copley News Service


CHICAGO - Chicago's plans to install "red-light cameras" at dangerous intersections could influence their use elsewhere in Illinois.

Owners of vehicles that run red lights here will receive a $90 ticket in the mail, along with the photographic evidence, under a high-tech enforcement program aldermen approved last week. The city is initially equipping 10 intersections with cameras, at a reported cost of $1.7 million.

Chicago officials have long studied red-light cameras, which are used in some 70 cities across the country and even more widely overseas. A recent test at two local intersections documented more than 4,500 instances of vehicles running red lights in the span of just one month, transportation department spokesman Brian Steele said.

"The test showed that the problem definitely does exist in the city of Chicago," Steele said.

Ward 50 Alderman Bernard Stone agrees there's a problem, but he cast one of the council's few "no" votes. Among his concerns is that the vehicle owner who is ticketed may not actually have been the driver, and defendants who want to protest may not get a fair shake in court.

"How do you cross-examine a machine?" Stone said. "(When) you're given a citation by a police officer, if the officer doesn't show up in court, the matter is dismissed. Here, the camera doesn't show up in court, the camera doesn't testify - the victim is found guilty."

The debate may move beyond Chicago.

A group of legislators this spring attempted to set uniform standards for red-light camera enforcement - making a violation equivalent to a parking infraction - and allow all Illinois cities to implement a program. The measure, which passed the Senate, was later soundly defeated in the House.

"I couldn't believe it - nobody's going to lose their license over this deal," said one co-sponsor, state Rep. John Millner, R-Carol Stream, who hopes to revive the bill next year. "Now that Chicago has it, the eyes will be on Chicago to see how they use it."

Peoria traffic officials for years have sought the ability to enforce red-light violations with cameras, saying state law currently permits only populous Chicago to do it. City traffic engineer Jim Baumann envisioned placing cameras at 20 high-risk intersections.

"Our pitch was not to make money," he said. "It's definitely a safety measure, it's not for revenue."

Nationwide, more than 800 motorists die annually and more than 260,000 are injured in crashes in which vehicles run red lights, Chicago's transportation department said. Cities with red-light enforcement have seen steep reductions in crashes, injuries and deaths, the department said.

In another high-tech initiative, Chicago police last week unveiled plans to post surveillance cameras in distressed neighborhoods to deter gang-related violence. The city of Peoria already has used the monitoring devices in its riverfront district and plans to install five remote-control cameras in high-crime areas.



****

Council OKs Buying Cameras To Catch Red Light Runners, Puts Off Tickets Issue






Thurdsay, July 10, 2003, 8:38 a.m.

(Chicago) – The City Council on Wednesday approved the purchase of ten cameras to catch and ticket vehicles running red lights.

With the opposition of four aldermen, the City Council ended up deferring the ordinance authorizing the issuance of $90 tickets to the owners of vehicles captured on camera running red lights under the automated red light violation enforcement system.

The ticket would not be a moving violation and would not go on the driving record. The violation was to be handled like a parking ticket. The ticket will count towards getting a Denver boot. Currently, if a person has three or more unpaid parking tickets, the vehicle can be booted.

The city was looking at buying 20 cameras from RedFlex Traffic Systems for $1.7 million to be installed at 10 intersections by late summer or early fall.

The passage of the ordinance came after Ald. Burton Natarus (42nd) withdrew his motion to defer and publish the ordinance.

He initially made the motion after he and two other aldermen voiced their disapproval of the matter. An ordinance can automatically get deferred and published if two aldermen make and support the motion. Ald. Howard Brookins (21st) joined Natarus.

Ald. Bernard Stone (50th) was against the ordinance because he didn't trust machines. "The machine is not fool-proof," Stone said.

Ald. Isaac Carothers (29th) said he knew nothing was perfect but that was not a valid enough reason to reject the program. "If it wasn't for the pacemaker, some of us wouldn't be here today. That's a machine," Carothers said.

Stone questioned the claim that the program and threat of a ticket would change driving behavior.

"First of all, the machine doesn't punish the driver. The machine will punish the owner of the vehicle. So how are we going to change driving habits when the driver isn't necessarily the one that's going to be punished?" Stone said.

Natarus said if the city wanted to change poor driving behavior, the aldermen should pass an ordinance prohibiting drivers from turning right on red. "People have gotten used to going through the red light as a matter of habit," Natarus said.

He said he was worried about whether the photographs would be clear and accurate.

"We cannot keep human beings out of law enforcement. We can't keep human beings out of making the judgment as to whether or not there's a violation because otherwise George Orwell is right, the machines do take over," Natarus said.

rookins said if money was going to be spent, more police officers should be hired and put on the streets.

Carothers said the city did not have money to put police on every corner.

After it was deferred, Mayor Richard M. Daley, whose administration sponsored the ordinance, snipped at Natarus.

Natarus was on the council floor talking to a colleague when Daley said, "Ald. Natarus, please recognize fellow aldermen when they're giving (committee) reports."

But when the motion was later withdrawn, another aldermen expressed frustration with Natarus. Ald. Richard Mell (33rd) complained that Natarus put aldermen in an awkward position and pulled the same legislative maneuver when the City Council voted on the renovation of Soldier Field.

"I went through thus with Ald. Natarus to defer and publish the Soldier Field thing. He suckered me into doing the same thing," Mell said.

"As we're sitting there deferring and publishing...because we thought it was the right thing to do, Ald. Natarus goes to the back room, cuts a deal and comes back up and reverses it," Mell said.

"Ald. Natarus, if you want to defer and publish something, you should defer and follow through and stick to it. You shouldn't put people in the middle, like Ald. Brookins, and then come back out and do this," Mell said.

The ordinance was passed but aldermen Natarus, Stone, Brookins, and Brian Doherty (41st) voted against it. Doherty said the idea was "too Big Brotherish."

Afterwards Natarus said, "I think this debate was healthy."

Stone chimed in and said, "The debate was healthy but not the defer and publish."

Also, Natarus introduced two driving-related ordinances of his own. He reintroduced his ban on using handheld cell phones while driving. The ordinance carried a $50 fine. But if an accident occurred while in violation of the ordinance, the driver would be fined up to $200.

The second ordinance he introduced would order the police department to maintain records of all accidents involving the use of "mobile, cellular, analog, wireless or digital telephones" while driving.

Both ordinances go to the Committee on Traffic Control and Safety.

When asked what he thought about Natarus's ordinance, Daley jokingly said, "We'll have to get him on camera."




Voluntary Disclosure: Position Sentiment: LT Buy TOU violation






Subject re: watch rdf double in price
Posted 18/07/03 23:58 - 287 reads
Posted by hilldweller
Post #113060 - in reply to msg. #113056 - splitview

Thanks Paul,

What concerns me that as the revenue is over 5 years it could quite easily fall short. These cameras are at fixed intersections and say after 2 years (this is the US) most drivers in the city would be not running the red lights. The revenue will be huge at first, but surely must drop over time on a per intersection basis.

Still, the company does look very promising and the more cities that take them up in the US, well the sky will be the limit for RDF.

No wonder there is not a lot for sale at the moment...

Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






Subject re: watch rdf double in price
Posted 19/07/03 16:42 - 232 reads
Posted by Paul100
Post #113097 - in reply to msg. #113060 - splitview

Hilldweller

Your concern on revenue is valid. There will be a drop off over time in revenue and I would say that the announcements have allowed for this, so revenue in the early part will be higher than the average and lower later.
There are a lot of other factors also at work such as over time fines go up, RDF get more per fine but there are less fines.

Also there a 4 types of payments
Fee per citation paid
Fee per citation issued
Fixed monthly rental per approach
Outright sale with yearly maintenance fees(rdf has none of these but it looks like Chicago will be the first)

I think as time goes by and the profit results improve some of the concerns around the company will disappear. The company has been a bad market performer and justifiably so as they have always underachieved expectations. This time last year the company could have gone broke, they had no money, great product and contracts but not much use with no money. But since then the chairman has gone , the board has changed and the company has made the hard decisions such as a large share issue, they now have a loan from NAB. So from early this year they were in a position to finally realise some of the value (install camera's) in the company
But the concerns still remain but they are slightly different now. It's more of will they really make the large profits and until such time that this is in black and white many potential major purchasers wont act. They would rather pay $1.20 in 6 months than 77 cents now or 48 cents less than 6 weeks ago . They will wait. My reseach say's this is just an outstanding buy. One of the best i have seen

what you have is a small company which at the current rate of growth in 12 months will be the biggest digital red light/speed camera company in the US. The biggest compeditor ACS has around 600 approaches but these are all old wet film. No one wants wet film they all want digital and RDF continue to beat ACS in any head to head contests
RDF won Oxnard from ACS. ACS was the incumbent which makes it even more impressive but the most impressive win is Chicago.
The chicago tendor has around 12 bidders which was reduced down to 2. RDF and ACS who then both had to install camera's at a intersection and run a head to head trial for a month.RDF was selected. I personally did not expect this. RDF has the best technology but It was hard to believe that the better solution would overcome the political and financial muscle of ACS. ACS is a $US5.8 Billion market cap and RDF is $us36Million

The impact of this win propells RDF onto the radar screen of any city looking at red lights . The marketing impact is worth much more than the Chicago win which by itself could easily be more than 100 approaches over time. By itself the chicago contracts will be huge and the marketting benefits even more

The US market is in its infancy stages. Probaly 10 to 15 years behing Australia.The civil libertarians are still arguing that it's unfare to motorists that a "machine" can be used to catch motorists who are killing people by running red lights. In the US unlike Australia hundreds of people are actually killed and thousands injured by red light runners. It is a serious problem. We are talking about intersections where the speed limit is 45Miles per hour and people are speeding and running the red light through these intersections at speeds of 50 and 60 miles per hour. Clearly the civil libertarians are loosing

The other factor which is not even on the radar screen yet are speed camera's. These are absolute money machines as any australian would understand. But they are only legal in 4 states. But the civil libertarians are loosing this one too.

Just consider this, RDF at this stage would be the favourite to become the biggest red light camera company in the US, even if they were in the top 5 in 10 years they would be huge. At this time you cannot even find 4 genuine compeditors. Now overlay the fact that speed camera's will be legalised accross the US. RDF have the contracts with the cities for red light logically they will also get the speed contracts. Then consider that the cost to upgrade a existing camera for speed is less than $2000 a camera. The existing camera's are already speed capable, its just a plug in card upgrade. Now add on that speed camera's catch a least 4 times more offfenders than red light. Revenue just exploded and the cost was insignificant.

The numbers get so dam big i need a calculator with a larger number display. Even if I divide my numbers by 10 they are still huge.

But it's long term , the snowball is still at the top of the hill. To get the ultimate returns this is a 5 to 10 year investment.

Even so the current share price would be well over a dollar if even a reasonable number of investors had a inkling to the real potential here.

Voluntary Disclosure: Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






Subject re: watch rdf double in price
Posted 19/07/03 16:52 - 230 reads
Posted by hilldweller
Post #113100 - in reply to msg. #113097 - splitview

Thanks for that Paul. Great post. I do like the lloks of this mob.

Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






Subject re: watch rdf double in price
Posted 19/07/03 18:41 - 206 reads
Posted by stevehope
Post #113107 - in reply to msg. #113006 - splitview

Spot on Domain.Gee we have to read a lot of rubbish.It seems that 99% of what we read is ramping.Talk about dreamers.

Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






Subject re: watch rdf double in price
Posted 20/07/03 10:07 - 160 reads
Posted by Prime1
Post #113144 - in reply to msg. #113100 - splitview

Paul100, you've earned the thanks, as well as the respect, of a lot of people, with your clear, logical presentation. It's a refreshing change from the casual, top-of-the-head stuff we see too often.

Your point about RDF Traffic in the US only becoming economic when they reached more than 100 installations is very significant. It means that most of the would-be competitors are bleeding red ink, and likely to remain so. The only larger one, ACS, is stuck with an uncompetitive technology (wet film). The only competitor here in Oz, Poltech, is short of cash, and has now been hit with a legal judgment in the US which could put it in much more trouble. If they go under as a result, RDF should be able to pick up most of that business, and keep it profitable.

Prime1

Voluntary Disclosure: Position Sentiment: Buy TOU violation






Subject re: watch rdf double in price for stevehope
Posted 20/07/03 19:36 - 120 reads
Posted by Paul100
Post #113204 - in reply to msg. #113107 - splitview

Stevehope

The answer to domains question is RESEARCH. I put that in bold so that you would not miss it.

I suggest that yourself and many others on this forum should get a dictionary (if you know what one is) and look it up

Otherwise all I can suggest is you change your nic to nohope to better reflect your chances in the sharemarket

Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






Subject re: watch rdf double in price to prime1
Posted 20/07/03 20:50 - 100 reads
Posted by Paul100
Post #113212 - in reply to msg. #113144 - splitview

Prime1
Thanks for you comments. As you know at anytime you post on hotcopper someone is going to knock you and as a result the genuine investors on this forum would clearly be in the silent minority and it is to those few minority that my posts are directed.

I am only trying to attract long term holders to this stock. Daytraders do more damage than good to good stocks

As you have summarised very well, the competition is currently in disarray.

But just consider this. Even if the competition was strong, the market is so huge and growing so quickly that RDF would still get a share big enough to justify much higher share prices. If you follow the logic in my previous post you would find that 500 approaches would generate between 14 to 20 Million NPAT(with full tax at 30%). Currently they must be close to 300, chicago must eventually be at least 50 and they are winning somewhere between 10 and 20 a month. So in 12 months they will be close to 500 if not past 500.

Now just to clarify, that is 500 contracted approaches not 500 installed. It will probably take 2 more years before they have 500 are installed and the revenue's generated

So at 500 approaches what is the company worth

with 72M shares on issue and a PE of 10 $1.94 to $2.78
Realistically though if the comapny is still growing at 30 to 40%(and that should be a minimun) then a PE of 15 would be low, could easily be 20 or 25 especially if the Bulls are back in town , and it 2 years the Bulls should be everywhere and the bears fast asleep

Currently what is holding RDF back the most is that they just cannot keep up with customer demand. They have a backlog of at least 140 approaches and the backlog is growing all the time. Logic dictates that the company must be addressing this issue, but this also takes time and it needs too. The technology is leading edge so you just cannot hire anyone to intall the camera's, you need to take the time to get the best people, after all the performance of your product is your biggest marketing edge. You only have to see what is happening to ACS , there only real compeditor at this time . ACS customers are changing suppliers because of the performance of the ACS product. Unlike a lot of products where it is advertising which differentiates a product in the market with red light camera's the performance of the product is highly visible to everyone to see and the motorist organisation etc in particuler are just looking for a reason to attack the cities who certainly dont want any bad publicity and also want the revenue

Voluntary Disclosure: Position Sentiment: None TOU violation






Subject re: watch rdf double in price to prime1
Posted 20/07/03 20:57 - 95 reads
Posted by Paul100
Post #113213 - in reply to msg. #113212 - splitview

A quick clarrification of my posts. I am only commenting on the US traffic division known as RTS which is 100% owned by RDF.

My comments and calculations do not include any profits which may come from direct camera sales in Australia on any other non US country or any profits from the communications division

Voluntary Disclosure: No Position Sentiment: None TOU violation




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