Let's talk facts and the concerns of prospective and existing investors.
Here's a basic checklist on the criteria Nuix has to meet for the share price to retrace upwards to some degree and resolve the existing uncertainty. Feel free to add to it if necessary. Ideally, we would want a resolution to as many of these criteria as necessary.
Exceeding Expectations.
1. Exceeding FY21 Guidance or Revenues at Top-End of Guidance Range.
2. Positive FY22 Guidance showing strong growth (15%+).
3. New CEO and CFO (with very strong credentials, preferably past CEO experience and extremely well educated).
4. Peaceful resolution to existing ASIC investigations
5. Peaceful resolution to existing Lawsuits.
6. Confirmation that no Escrow Shares are disposed on the Market.
7. Sustainable growth strategy outlined. This needs to be clear and frank, or else the stock tanks. No BS like "Global Expansion or Considering Acquisitions".
8. If cost-cutting, cut down on Board Fees. It's negligible compared to their potential capital gains. Any big severance package will be greatly frowned upon after lackluster performance.
9. New Institutional Investors jump on board.
So here it is. Raw facts about what is needed August 30. There's no sugarcoating. If we don't hit these figures, share price could well take a tumble again.
For $2.50, we get:
Existing Expectations - $800M MC.
1. We hit the guidance (in the middle).
2. We get a new CEO / CFO.
3. ASIC / Lawsuits are resolved.
4. Decent growth strategy outlined.
5. Some escrow selling, but minimal.
6. August passes without some more bad news.
7. Positive FY22 Guidance (+%)
If we do not even hit some of these basic expectations by Aug 30, then a share price fall will be likely. The current expectations aren't very high. For the share price to rise, then our expectations must be exceeded. I hope everyone is well aware of the risks and rewards now.
There is definitely a steep mountain to climb, as long as everyone is understanding of that come August 30th, then we can maintain a clear and coherent discussion. It is definitely a gamble.
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