LYC 0.17% $6.05 lynas rare earths limited

research help for moly call next week

  1. 1,176 Posts.
    Lynas friends I want to post a few things I have been working on in preparation for Moly's call next week. If any other researchers can check me here I would appreciate their help.
    Moly has claimed in slide 17 of Smith's Gabelli presentation that Moly produces rare earth for $1.26 per pound. But in Slide 19 of the same presentation they claim a pound of Neodymium oxide costs $1.75 per pound to produce.
    I also noticed Moly currently only produces Lanthanum Oxide, Lanthanum Chlorohydrate, Lanthunum Concentrate, Ceric Hydrate, and Didymium (a compound that is divided to derive Neodymium and Praseodymium). And all of this production is only from stockpiled bastnasite (even though Mountain Pass has both bastnasite and monazite deposits). Smith further claims Molycorp only uses Hydrochloric Acid and Sodium Hydroxide in it's current processing.
    In the same Gabelli presentation, Smith also says Molycorp will produce in 2013 Praseodymium, Neodymium, Samarium, Dysprosium, Europium, Terbium, and Gadolinium.
    Now it is clear to me that Moly will need to use some of Mountain Pass' monazite in order to produce their 2013 revenue estimates of these "heavier lanthanides" ect.. And it is clear it costs more to produce the heavier lanthanides. In short, the processing and separating of monazite and the production of these heavier lanthanides will raise Moly's $1.26 per pound figure.
    But the real rub here is that Moly in Slide 17 appears to be comparing their current lanthanum/ceric/didynium production from bastnasite to Lynas' entire basket production costs and China's full suite production costs. It's a false apples to oranges comparison! If that is true the real cost gap between Moly and Lynas may not exit. And any claims Moly has to better margins are very doubtful.
    But it is worse than that. Over 65% of Moly's 2013 revenue estimates come from products they do not currently produce (and may never have produced). They are perceived as having been moth-balled and that all the metallurgy will be smooth when they start running. I think that is doubtful. I also wonder if their permits indicate that they will process monazite in the future which would have Thorium as a radioactive by product. If not, the business model would be on its ear. We need to check these things and get on the Q & A and get the analysts thinking about these things. We can make this a plus for Lynas if we do.
    If any researchers can check or correct any of this I would really appreciate the feedback. Thanks in advance.
 
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