With a risked price target of 39c, a fair fundamental value to FDR at present would be around 30% of that, or 12c. I think the share price will churn towards that value, and as derisking events occur we should price more towards a discounted “unrisked” price, around 20c.
You also have to remember that the research note price targets are for the ‘positive FID’ stage, basically valuing the oil reserve, meaning that in an actual PRODUCTION case we would be trading at a multiple P/E.
On a different note, a great analogue for FDR is HZN, who started in a very similar position to us, particularly in their China asset where CNOOC provided the capex for a similar sized oil project.
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