research note on afgha, page-21

"How did you arrive at your conclusion regarding the A & L. AFG's net assets would have to have fallen by about 1bn (and I mean real assets - not the goodwill)."

Strip out all the goodwill.
Value Aviation, Rail, and Shipping as shown on balance sheet
Value infrastructure as shown on the BS but discount the equity holdings by 20%
Property and Financial is worth zero (it would be negative except for the non-recourse nature of their debt)
Funds Management - as shown on BS but discount equity holdings by 60%
Group investments - 20% haircut on asset values 80% haircut on equity holdings

Net this off against corporate level debt.

I still worry this is too optimistic. Remember Allco have indicated 1.5BN of write downs & they don't even need to mark most of their assets to market. I also think on the liabilities side that debt they're calling recourse may not really be. There is a big jump in non-recourse debt reported between their June 07 and Dec 07 ASX filings. It's pretty common for companies to call debt recourse but when push comes to shove it isn't really.