Indeed a great write up, articulated well and covered the main points.
Very interesting to get his thoughts on the figures.
So, what can I add?
Well a few little things:
There is more we are working on. I know a lot know this but there are newbies to us....
1) MPS Program
A] MPS VI
IND about to be filed this quarter. Sure this is a smaller program that the herculan OA....After all MPS is a rare disease and all strains of MPS added together affect some 3.5 births out of 100,000 on average. There are areas in the world where this is higher. Why should YOU care about this indication if it's so small in comparison? Because it BECOMES large due to the price we will be able to charge...unlike OA, MPS will require ongoing weekly or fortnightly treatment. Multiply the low patient numbers by the much higher revenue dollars and you get a "Company Maker" in it's own right, an estimated market of some $1.4 Billion USD....that's not once off...that's per annum.
B] MPS I
Has already kicked off Phase 2 in Adelaide, I know they have 3 patients in the pipeline already...results of this should be available by early to mid 2022? Will be a good read on up to 10 patients and it's a trial WE are controlling and WE will publish and it's in Aus...less chance of Covid disruptions.
2) TWINS
Well I call it the twins, it's the two Alpha Viral Arthritic conditions known as Ross River Fever (RRV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV). Yes RRV is much smaller than CHIKV in terms of numbers with an estimated 5000 odd per year of RRV but in the low millions for CHIKV. The US. Department of Defense (DOD) are particularly interested in this one. Why Mozz, why do they care? Well many of their troops are stationed in tropical climates where Mozzies live (not this Mozzie)...they are the culprits who spread this nasty infliction.
Once you get it you can have symptoms for a few days up to 1 year in some cases, results in painful joints as being one of the ongoing symptoms....Did someone mention joint pain? iPPS to the rescue for sure. And it's the ONLY solution out there that has shown to have
any efficacy in that area. We are onto a winner here let me tell you. Once the Manuscript thats peer reviewed comes back the DOD will be much more interested. Oh and did I mention a possibility of a voucher? It's a completely separate scheme by the FDA to encourage research into tropical disease as an example. Not sure if we are a chance here, but it IS a chance. Quite a lucrative scheme if we are eligible.
Do you know a possible pathway here? Let me enlighten. The DOD has a special relationship with the US Govt AND the FDA...they are all Govt agencies. The Military can make things happen like you wouldn't believe...and IT HAS HAPPENED. There have been special release of medications that have become available THOUGH THEY ARE NOT YET APPROVED. This means the DOD has full power to be able to work with the FDA to get hold of an unapproved drug for their troops IF obviously it has shown some real merit AND is safe. There are cases of this in the past with other drugs and medications. ONE possibility is that the DOD fund us for a P3 for CHIKV. We may give them 5000 units as a Thank You and
Bob Joe is your uncle. (Well you get the expression).
WAIT hold the press, is that a syringe of iPPS I see in GI Joe's military rescue kit?
3) ARDS
I see this making headlines in light of Covid. Now we are at the very infancy of this phase...preclinical model with a long long path to do...but some data coming back from this and then getting peer reviewed will show us what we have in this area. Could be a completely separate area and avenue we pursue.
4) HEART
This is still also going on in the background, info on it can hit any time.
5) ACHOO
Sorry, Hay Fever, I forgot to ask about this one in the R&D...but I presume this is still brewing....no doubt the main focus is on OA and MPS...but this isn't a dead end. It's a $12 Billion potential revenue market.
6) JAPAN
We know there is working being done here and as I have mentioned in the past, Japan is a beast of its own. With a different culture and a different language it does make sense to do a regional type deal here. Yes as PR said dont expect anything in the next few months...doesn't mean that progress can't eventuate to something riveting and meaningful in this area this year? Maybe next year?
I would really love to see some break out deals being done rather than a J&J or some other Big Pharma just swallow us whole in one massive deal for Global rights. Let me shed a little light on my thinking:
Take two scenarios:
SCENARIO A
After 1 year we get a massive Global Deal for $6.5 Billion USD for global rights...$300 million upfront, a further $150 Million in cash on passing of P3 (OA), $500 M on achievement of first 500 million of sales and rest on surpassing $1 Bil of sales with a Billion each year thereafter subject to AE's. A 25% Royalty kicker on all sales.
SCENARIO B
Japan Only Pharma signs a separate deal for us for $50 Mill Up front...$25 Mill on passing P3 and $25 Mil on surpassing first $10 Mil of sales...royalty is 45% of all Japanese sales.
PLUS we get a Global ex Japan and ex Aus and NZ deal by some Titan-of-a-Pharma for $5 Billion USD similar conditions to Scenario A.
While both scenarios are lucrative, Scenario B would be nice for us as we would control many more sales and have the ability to do what we like in Aus and NZ as well...it makes sense and it's at least a few countries/areas we get to keep 100% of revenue and control. There is a certain charm of being able to keep ALL sales for ourselves despite some overheads at least in a few regions.
7) New Repurposing Drugs
Mate, this is a pure can of worms...who knows about any of these three...what is the potential, what can they address? I see this as the real long play...like 10 years from now...but it could be accretive one day...glad there are multiple options for us.
So there is a lot ...I mean a REAL lot of ways this can go...no need to over think it but it is fun to come up with a few ideas and wonder about it.
No matter what, as Scott has inferred, there is a lot to look forward to and it can roll out quite quickly despite there being a few longer timetables being bantered about. The great thing for us is the drug has proven itself, is safe, it's effective, it has a massive potential in not just one indication of the body and it's ours, we are the owners.
DYOR is best
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
1) Gans Gans for original post
2) Thanks to a mate for prompting me to do this post.
(20min delay)