research reports and media, page-1890

This used to be the main thread.
Bell Potter shared this....which is close to my posted expectations
PAR – (an associated analyst's name) notes coy update on its IND application for Zilosul. FDA responded with 6 questions , with just 1 remaining outstanding relating to non-clinical toxicology data. PAR does not believe it will be required to generate further data to satisfy the FDA, but might require small adjustment to the clinical protocol.Net result is a likely delay to IND opening until at least Oct, implying ~6mth delay to our expected trial & approval timetable.<named person> now expects 1st commercial rev in late Cy24.Market potential remains very large, with millions of patients in need of a non-opioid pain relief for osteoarthritis.Closing cash at 30 Jun was $71.1m which <named person> reckons gives them up to 2yrs working capital.We would expect partnership discussions to intensify over the next 12 months as trial recruits.

So the question is how to value PAR and the answer is, use a discounted cash flow, but we don't know the profit margin, so the next best answer is use some analyst report and adjust accordingly.
Estimates of royalties range from 5 to 15%.
Revenue based estimates differ from industrial to high GP network effect stocks (Google, Facebook). PAR will likely according to Baker Young and mst-access be likely to do a deal on distribution rights with an up front component.
So pick a share price to revenue at the low end (the other partner needs to make a profit too!), something like 3x. IMO
The Baker Young report is here
https://paradigmbiopharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Baker-Young-Research-Report-February-2021-.pdf
JP Morgans are well known for being active in shorting stocks. You don't have to be a genius to infer that their valuations might be self-serving. So IMO only take their analysis to be a low range risk based valuation. Your broker can give you their latest estimate.
The Baker Young value was upwards of $4.75.
The prognosis quoted by Bell Potter is that the timelines from earlier this year have shifted out by six months.
SO it might be wise to to discount for that, ie half the discount rate applied to an earlier assessment.

Still more than double the current price!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chicago_Method
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/times-revenue-method.asp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chicago_Method

IMO. DYOR