PAR 12.7% 31.0¢ paradigm biopharmaceuticals limited..

research reports and media, page-2514

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    I have long been of the view that pre Registration the DCF % for any deal is of the order of 70% pa, and after that is 40%.
    So when the IND approval came along in Nov, and you get to see the additional work overlaid, and you know it isn't just another three months, voila, after one year, the realization date is out by one year from IND submission.
    That explains a big chunk of the price fall.
    Another chunk is that management didn't do proper risk management and put the extra work into the original submission. It was up to PAR to get the submission right. The new CEO search is a call for some Captain Marvel. They could hire a competent manager from IT to do risk management for them.
    It is NOT rocket science. It is not peculiar to biotech,
    You ask what could possibly go wrong and deal with the answers, all of them. The plan then has control, mitigate, monitor actions.
    You don't need Captain Marvel and we never did, but maybe we do now, because what we have is the ooops brigade.

    From here there are these options
    1. A CR - GLWT before Captain Marvel comes along, at 80 cents on now current price
    2. A deal on MPS -- makes some sense, it eliminates a source of cash burn.
    3. A side deal on geography for iPPS/Zilosul, -- i can't see that at any price, if you can stump up a bid take a share and put in a new management team

    One other option is to get listed in US for Depository Receipts. That give broader exposures in a bigger market.That in conjunction with an MPS deal could be best for shareholders.

    Going back to the first sentence, in case you missed it something worth $x a year ago is worth less now because the schedule has blown out an extra three months, at least. By worth, i don't mean the share price, but what another party might have had in mind for a bid.
    GLTAH.
    IMO.
    DYOR.
 
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