Regarding PAR share price through to 2027
My view is that most LTH are tired from the journey so far, and newcomers are scant.
Why are newcomers scant: Because we are in troubled times, with supply chain issues, inflation, and interest rates have risen, and may rise a little more. Risk profiles are up, and time to revenue is a negative influence for investors who are not seeing any capital gains. PAR need to be “discovered”, again.
Since 2027 is the now hoped-for final registration date for iPPS/Zilosul, we ought to be able to come up with a forecast price considering the end market is supposedly now >$US29 billion.
There was a time, back in 2019 when it seemed like the end date was 2025 or even earlier.
Then our Chairman Paul Rennie let it slip that the time to NDA (the application for registration) was 36 months from the start of the FDA approved trials.
Then when the phase 3 Trials did get almost started the FDA had questions and another 9 months delay ensued, and then there was COVID. It appears that those who had been enrolled slipped out of the process, and a whole new enrolment needed to be commenced.
So, we restarted, and early results are promising. During this process since early 2019 there have been two capital raises. Each of them said that would be enough for (most of the) pre NDA. Now we know that PAR will run out of money 1q2024. There might be a deal on MPS, but any progress on that got scuttled when the designated enabler got fired (apparently).
So we should be expecting a CR in 1Q2024, unless we get lucky with a deal.
I have put it to the Board through Simon White that going back to Bell Potter a third time is not the best way to manage capital and argued that WBT and BRN have shown a better way for their shareholders, and that waiting until the last moment is far from a good way to go about capital management.
Finally, we know that the board dumped some proposals for remuneration.
They recognized their performance is on the nose with shareholders.
So all of that should mostly explain the slide in the share price from its high.
The chartists are all over that, and tend to see a side-on “V” that will breakout and up since mid-2022.
GLWT.
Which brings me to the outlook for the share price.
1.Investors don’t have confidence in the board. That will only change slowly as milestones are met.
2.There is a need for CR before 1q 2024, and there needs to be certainty about capital coverage through to Registration and the first year of marketing. Only then will the market fully underwrite the potential (in conjunction with 1)
3.The actual share price on the way has to discount the time to fruition. The current analyst reports are a year or so out of date. They need to better account for market take-up. Given higher inflation since back then, the discount rate needs to be higher.
What should it look like? We could base it on revenue because we still don’t know the gross profit per course of Zilosul delivery. Or go ahead and guess a distribution deal. We still don’t know what distribution deal will be done and what final deal will be done with Bene. Either way we have to discount the risk of being overly optimistic.
Suppose the analyst reports were reasonable at around $4 a year ago. Even with higher inflation there is a significant gap now. Since we all expect positive news on the upcoming milestones, based on what we have seen so far, the only basis for a surge in price has to come from the board improving their accountability for
a)Capital management
b)Project management
OR
Significantly better than expected trial results
OR
Significant institutional investment (based on results)
OR a deal
OR multiples of those
…
To summarize the general outlook for the market is not promising and any newcomers who might be interested in PAR will see a looming CR.
Best that the board get that out of the way in a way that is attractive to retail holders, and not wait until 1Q2024.
I don't see a lot of growth in the share price in line with the 2027 price we might hope for this year unless some of the issues i have raised are dealt with.
My early PARates day optimisitc guess is 2.12, assuming some better than expected news. IMO. DYOR.
Happy Australia Day.
(20min delay)