Thanks for posting - I thought it was well laid out analysis.I...

Thanks for posting - I thought it was well laid out analysis.

I ended up posting the following response to John's channel.

Hi John,

Good analysis - thank you.

As a side note, I take it you were were noting an estimated addressable market of 30m people and then mistakenly noted 200m 'dollars' as the worldwide addressable market? If you have the inclination, I believe you can add text to your video at that point to give a post edited correction.

Going forward, if you note having done back of the envelope extrapolations on market size, it would be interesting for us viewers to be able to see the calculations.

On a separate note, I have a reasonable amount invested in PAR - but I still agree with a lot of your points. The CUV analogy you drew out was good as a litmus test for me to rethink my weighting in PAR. I think AVH also provides some perspective for PAR. AVH was FDA Phase 3 approved in Dec 2018 with c. 600% in gains following in the following year. With assumptions in place, I think PAR could be running 3 years behind AVH in approvals - which means it would have 2 more years before Phase 3 is approved (assuming it is). Although I think the PAR market is larger, I don't think its uptake with physicians will be as fast as AVH received in the U.S. with Recell. With that said, I guess FOMO of missing an AVH 2019 type of run up on price is part of the reason why I have been in and out of PAR over the last 9 months.

Your discussion has me interested in grabbing a large number of smaller biotechs with successful FDA trials and then map the P1, P2 and P3 approval events to share price action - along with events for first material revenues and transition to positive EPS. I will have a sniff around for some good FDA type sources on trials that I can use to form the events timeline. My starting hypothesis is probably that P3 approval is the optimal entry point from a returns perspective. If I remember what you noted in the video you seemed more interested in the inflection point for positive EPS - vs revenues. I am keen to hear your thoughts before finding time to write some code to test this.