GG - Thanks for your post, some good information here, let me add to it.
Ok definitely some good results experienced by the majority (~80%) of patients. There do seem to be some nasty side effects with some patients though, see below for details.
In terms of numbers, yes agree with you, The RA market in the US is estimated at 2 million people. After 5 years of commercialisation they are treating 200,000 world wide. this represents roughly 0.58% total RA market penetration. What does this mean for us, well speculatively, OA affects around 30 Mil Americans, perhaps this is around 20 Mil with associated BMEL, lets use 15 Mil conservatively. That COULD mean in 5 years AFTER Commericalisation approval we could be treating 1 Million patients worldwide. Hard to imagine but it could happen. As GG pointed out, Amgen are making $1.3 Bill per quarter on it!
Dont forget OA is around 10 x the RA market, Ive used x 5 to be conservative. Heck, even 2.5 X would be fantastic. As I've said all along, it will be a wait for us through, even if we get approval in just 2 years, we may not get to such lofty levels for another 3 or 4 years AFTER that. Depends a lot on whether a deal is done to accelerate this whole process. Dont forget this is just OA we are discussing here.
DYOR and std disclaimers
I havent heard of any such nasty AE's with PPS so far but of course the third phase trial is required to sure this up.
Side effects of ENBREL:
Since the product was first introduced, the following have been reported in patients using ENBREL:
* Serious Infections - Many occurred in people prone to infection, such as those with advanced or poorly controlled diabetes - Some serious infections were fatal - Rare cases of tuberculosis * What to do/Not do - Do not start ENBREL if you have an infection or are allergic to ENBREL or its components - Tell your doctor if you are prone to infection - Stop ENBREL if a serious infection occurs - Contact your doctor if you have questions about ENBREL or develop an infection * Serious nervous system disorders such as multiple sclerosis, seizures, or inflammation of the nerves of the eyes. - Tell your doctor if you have ever had any of these disorders or if you develop them after starting ENBREL. * Rare reports of serious blood disorders (some fatal) - Contact your doctor immediately if you develop symptoms such as persistent fever, bruising, bleeding, or paleness * In medical studies of all TNF-inhibitors, a higher rate of lymphoma (a type of cancer) was seen compared to the general population, however, the risk of lymphoma may be up to several fold higher in RA patients. The role of TNF-inhibitors in the development of lymphoma is unknown. * The incidence of other cancers has not increased with extended exposure to ENBREL and is similar to the expected rate. * ENBREL can also cause injection site reactions. * In a medical study of patients with JRA, infections, headaches, abdominal pain, vomiting, and nausea occurred more frequently than in adults. - The kinds of infections reported were generally mild and similar to those usually seen in children - Other serious adverse reactions were reported rarely, including serious infections (2 percent) and depression/personality disorder (1 percent)
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