research & resulting questions, page-86

The PE for Befesa was 5.8 .

Geelong shouldnt be anymore than 5 given its contractual agreements being less than 3 years , and the life of the current plant at capacity .

The US cannot be calculated until you know what the deal is.

All that can be added on at this point in time is a premium for the current negotiational opportunity that Ben is trying to get over the line

As such I recap on my current valuation

Geelong $30m ie 6m @ 5 ( absolute max imo )
US $20m for the current opportunity Ben has
Silica $20m

Market cap $70m or .60c per share

Upsides

On the fully operational Geelong plant confirming the EBIT , I see a minimal increase in market cap as a result of the US opportunity being more likely and would add another 5c to the share price

On a US signed deal , dependant on the length and terms of the contract is the real kicker , and the potential is unknown

In addition to the current premium of $70m approx , there is scope for more , but the deal would need to be very good indeed , like 10 years , and return at least $10 m per annum Nett .

Risk reward I repeat favours the only the brave .....or if you bought them at 20c when I agree they were cheap