research

Morning to all,

Very much so in WA, not like to Eastern states ahead as you are.

I thought I'd change the thread title not being relevent to latest discussion, and the sombre mood of the last heading.

BTW, thanks for all your commentary.

1stly I would like to stress is that I am not ramping, sticking up for management actions or hope that you all think I am building up all your hopes by my postings re the leases and contracts signed regarding them.

I am as much in the dark as you guys are and looking for possible answers to why this and why that of whats going on. One thing for certain as we know is a lot of info cannot be relayed to us because of the legals surrounding the lease issues. I could be wrong in having said that the frac delays are wholly and solely because of the lease expiry date and the legals.

To get a better understanding of O&G, Option Agreements, their contracts etc I search for it on the net and it had really opened my eyes and could relate a lot of conditions and clauses back to past and present standings on whats going on.

Bit like putting to the pieces into a puzzle and my findings as I understand it is probably a better than a 60% chance this is happening.

Option Agreements are legal documents, and there is no evidence in Arturus history that Paul Page has had one signed or done with them besides hearsay. That was with Arturus but after the GGP acquisition from Arturus same again but GGP assured of indemnity from Pages litigation that popped up.

But now the leases are due to expire in March but there are a Primary Lease and a 2ndry Lease Phase involved where it comes into a CDP or Continuous Drilling and means that every 120days a new well needs to be drilled. Being a PAIDUP lease 3 yrs previously then this comes into effect.

There are things like shutin royalties for wells not producing but its not that bad. If the Page legals and expiry of leases are fitted together as a game played to manouvre a winning position, I think the shutins of these wells are a good thing for a small price to pay.

If they came in with big numbers this would recharge Pages claim to no end wanting in. We have been told of issues with 1&2 but so be it and that the fraccing is cheaper to be done all at once instead of incurring extra costs of the crews doing them individually. Its a tactical move and again its pointing to the expiry of the lease date.

Option Agreements will also need to be resigned after expiry date but we know SG will not do this if there was one to lose part of that revenue which is supposed to indemnified to protect our 100% interest.

Management know what they have under each well but we only know what we know. 3&4 are only piddling a small amount under the PB average of 136/day and we are only getting about 40, why so much diference that they are well apart from each other and less than closer wells that are established. Also if the company is desperate for funds why isnt the Cline/Strawn in #4 isolated from the rest of the well. Can only point to in my books is they DO NOT want big numbers from the 4 PB wells before leases expiry date. Only reason I can think of , there is no other purpose for it.

I've looked at a lot of leases and guides to lease signing and they are pretty much standard in clauses or conditions and that is what I'm basing my opinion on ane be interesting to see if I am close to my theory. Maybe someone else can have a better explanation that I cant fathom out.

2 mths to expiry time and if there is any logic to my theory then the 1,2 and 5 wells will be fracced around March. These need to be done by them and in production to get the CDP on the way for another well. Some good production from these wells will be a lift to revenues and less to get from Novus I suppose for the cost of the well.

Hopefully soon Terrace can lift their game and produce from the EFS wells. Arcadia and Goliad are not under dispute and are supposed to be cheap wells, so I would like to see these done ASAP making the KITTY look better for another drill under the CDP and again less to raise in the shortfall needed. Cheap alternative options to more revenue.

I cannot see GGP failing under the CDP to retain the rest of the leases every 120 days for a drill, even if its a cheap vert in the lease somewhere but some good production is needed to be less dilutive of any raisings. I think this is where the 1,2 and 5 wells come into play.

Hope is still there and I can see better things to come after my research. Get over the next couple of wells drilled and producing and things will look better yet, closer to self funding.

DYOR. I'm not a financial advisor, just my thoughts alone, sharing ideas and wanting to see great results from GGP in being a major producer. Hey we have dipped our toes in prime realty, nothing to say that in time more will be added.

To mind read the Market Briefing on the potential acquisition that SG has in mind and is confident on its potential. Others have knocked it back so could be a very cheap buyin.










DYOR is the best way to tackle the information highway