Research, page-2672

With the June quarterly coming next Wednesday, I thought I’d look back at the Imbio investor presentation (11 Dec) to get an idea of expectations for revenue from Imbio. Imbio’s forecast revenue for CY24 is US$6.3m (pg2). I expect this to be growing as the year progresses, so I’m assuming 20% will be realised in Q2 = US$1.26m = AU$1.94m. SaaS revenue from the half year report (released 28 Feb) was low at AU$356k (see Note 4.1). However, with commercial scans having commenced from the CMS approval of XV LVAS since January and more recently for CT VLAS, I wouldn’t be surprised to see >AU$2.5m total revenue in the June quarter and expect it will be growing fast. The AU$600k from commercial scans could have been achieved with ~1,000 XV LVAS scans at US$299 reimbursement. I consider this to be a conservative estimate, but we will see.

Based on using the same costs as in the previous quarter, and reducing admin & corporate costs by $2.4m (one-off acquisition expenses as noted), I get operating costs excluding R&D of ~AU$7m. I exclude R&D as that is generally covered by government grants, with some distortions in timing of grants received vs expenses incurred. I keep a running tally of R&D vs grants since listing and over the last 4 quarters to keep an eye on this. I actually expect grants to be higher than R&D expenses in the near future, as they are currently lagging. Remember R&D expenses are those incurred for things like clinical trials and the like.

My favoured operating metric that I track of “operating cashflow excluding government grants and R&D expenses” then comes out at about a $4.5m loss for the quarter, which by this metric is their best result since listing if this is achieved. I will adjust my thinking based on what comes out on Wednesday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if 4DX is in the black here by the end of the year or Q1 next year.

Interested to hear what others are expecting.