4DMedcial Website: "FDA submission targeted for mid-2025" - this...

4DMedcial Website: "FDA submission targeted for mid-2025" - this could be May, June or July

Health.Gov: "The National Lung Cancer Screening Program (NLCSP) is a screening program using low-dose computed tomography (low-dose CT) scans to look for lung cancer in high-risk people without any symptoms. It aims to find lung cancer early and save lives. Screening for eligible people starts from July 2025"

Separately, on Health.gov, documents are slowly being updated with updated information and more guidance.

We can pluck a bit of information from the "Participation volume for a national lung cancer screening program" document

Table 6: Expectedly shows Approximately 229,818 Low dose CT scans to be performed in 2025, with 114,733 and 229,491 respectively in 2026 and 2027.

LDCT costs as per Table 5 are $302.10. With a total expected cost for 2025 to be Approx. $202 million over 3 years.

Given Andreas has mentioned before, he doesn't expect the the national lung cancer screening program to be a huge revenue source, it may just be incidental findings that we are looking at, or even a portion of that, Which were 33,718 in 2025, 16,833 and 33,616 respectively in 2026 and 2027.

Totaling 84,167 incidental findings expected.


Based on "Frequency of Incidental Findings and Subsequent Evaluation in Low-Dose Computed Tomographic Scans for Lung Cancer Screening(Cite below):"
The most commonly reported IFs were pulmonary (69.6%), cardiovascular (67.5%), and gastrointestinal (25.9%). Fifteen percent of the scans had an IF that resulted in further evaluation. The majority of patients who underwent further testing had cardiovascular findings (10.3%); less frequently, they had thyroid or adrenal nodules (2.1%), hepatic lesions (0.9%), renal masses (0.6%), or pulmonary disease (0.6%). The most frequently ordered investigations were echocardiography (n = 9), cardiac stress test (n = 9), and CT angiography (n = 6).

https://doi.org/10.1513/AnnalsATS.201612-1023OC
Morgan L, Choi H, Reid M, Khawaja A, Mazzone PJ. Frequency of Incidental Findings and Subsequent Evaluation in Low-Dose Computed Tomographic Scans for Lung Cancer Screening. Ann Am Thorac Soc. 2017 Sep;14(9):1450-1456. doi: 10.1513/AnnalsATS.201612-1023OC. PMID: 28421812.

Conservatively, @65% of 84,167 IFs is 54,708.

That is opportunity of 54,708 Pulmonary/Cardiovascular IFs that could require scans.

I wont put a value on the scans, because I don't know, but it will sure be a lot cheaper than the re-imbursed amount in the US.