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Looking Past the Frustration: Is There Still Upside Here?

Mildly Speculative Thoughts on Fund Activity and Valuation Potential

Yes, the structure of this raise has caused frustration—but let’s take a step back. Could there still be a longer game in play?

It’s speculative, but given past involvement, I wouldn’t be surprised if Regal is again participating behind the scenes. They appeared on the registry last raise, and while we haven’t seen direct confirmation this time, Pengana is definitely in and is believed to be holding just under 20%. That kind of position typically reflects cornerstone status.

Institutional Context

Pengana and Regal were both deep in Opthea—and wore the losses. That shared experience can foster a certain resolve: a need to balance the score. In sectors like biotech, that often translates into backing companies that show clearer commercial pathways and shorter-term catalysts. It’s not just capital—it’s narrative recovery.

Why This Is Worth Noting

• Historical lessons: After being burned, institutions tend to prefer stories with executable roadmaps and tangible returns.

• Psychological and strategic alignment: A well-credentialed board, defined milestones, and revenue potential provide exactly the kind of profile that can regain investor confidence—internally and externally.

What Could Be Ahead

If execution plays out—whether through trial results, revenue growth, or partnerships—a $200M market cap might only be the starting point. For a fund sitting on ~20% of the registry, that’s a structurally high-conviction position. Should profitability come into frame, institutional capital often amplifies outcomes quickly.

Key Unknowns

• Regal’s involvement isn’t confirmed yet—though the precedent is there.

• Execution is the real hurdle: regulatory, clinical, and commercial markers still need to be delivered.

• Broader sentiment in micro and small-cap biotech is cautious and likely to remain so until catalysts materialise.

Final Take

Pengana is already on board. Regal was in last time. Both may see this as a route to redemption after Opthea. The setup is quietly interesting—assuming this board can execute on what’s in front of them. If they do, a serious re-rating could be on the table.

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Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making investment decisions.