resent spike, page-2

I wish I knew.

There have been a series of good news announcements in 2013 which has sparked interest in the company along with one fund adding at least a couple of % to their substantial shareholding (I presume they are the main culprit behind the continued buying).

The company has always been tightly held, hence low liquidity. So if I was looking at a takeover bid I would have put it to shareholders before the spike rather than try and build a position first as the illiquidity would just result in a much higher bid price than would otherwise be required. Alternatively I would approach substantial holders and try and get a hold of their shares off market as the best way to build a quick position.

Fair value is a difficult proposition to determine given the publicly available figures. The accounting standards make the half year results very rubbery due to the amount of guesswork involved. We really need the full year results to get a clearer picture.

Perhaps Olam's Australian Orchards Manager has inadvertently sparked the interest due to quotes in the Australian newspaper this week where he claimed the almond price is $70 per kg, top stuff for a grower if you can increase your price to that level given SHV are forecasting an almond price for their orchards of just over $6 per kg.