You are right we need to have patience .. lots of patience!! I posted a question yesterday asking what chance an upgrade on the eve of the AGM .. simply because that's what ESG did last year .. it wasn't a statement of expectation. It would seem reasonable to interpret what Casey said in HK to mean that ESG need to have at least some data from the Dewhurst lateral pilot to book the 1,300 and they won't have that until December sometime. However it is true that the last upgrade was on the basis of just early flow data from Bibbelwindi and coring data for just the first 4 wells at Dewhurst. On that basis it is conceivable that reserves could be upgraded NOW given the other 7 Dewhurst core holes and the 8 core holes on all the other prospects in PEL 238.
Its worth remembering too that 1,300 is just the start and its just an end of year target and yes they will be rushing to get enough flow data to book it by year's end. But Casey is confident we have 8,000 PJ and that's conservative and only for the Bohena coals. Quite early in 2010 I would expect another large upgrade on the basis of the Bibbelwindi West tri-lateral (which should have been online for 7-10 days now) which should enable Namoi coal reserves to be booked, and on the basis of more extensive data collected from the Bibbelwindi and Dewhurst pilots (Dewhurst alone is estimated at over 1,400 PJ so not all of it will be booked in the year end 1,300 reserves). The other reserves upgrade we anticipate is by way of marketing initiatives (like more power station MOU's and gas swaps with Santos) that will convert 2C to 2P. This could happen any day but most likley it will be after the 1,300 is booked.
H
ESG Price at posting:
87.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
