well I pitched my 'closest to the pin' last year for the 3P only, however I will also have a stab at the 2P.
Apart from the obvious testing etc, the biggest factor here is how many pilots they will be running and where. But so as not to be a kill joy I will have a stab anyway and start out at 18% of the 3P results with a 30% recovery on the IGIP.
So a total after maybe after 24 months of exploration and pilots might net us 3300PJ 3P and 592 PJ.
I think the 3P will come thick and fast for ATP1031 because of the solid dataset and understanding MHA have after their work with Arrow in the area. NSAI are processing Blue Energys for ATP814 that is also embedded within ATP364.
Some additional notes on the Vermont prospect worth pointing out. The prospect is directly on trend with Moranbah project to the North.
Also, the pre-drill depths had cutoffs for the GIP estimate at 600m. VM-1 reached 785m. The extra depth netted them an additional 4.5 meters of Moranbah coals; so the real surprise in this is from the FCCM which added 7.4metres or 37% to the estimate. No popping of corked champagne yet guys, but a 20% net coal intercept over the estimate is very encouraging.
They are using 1.5 as their cutoff and it would be interesting to see how much the GIP would raise if they were to raise that density cutoff to something like 2.25.
The description of bright and 'thick' coals is a bit dubious. Do they mean thick as in net intercepts or as in a tightly bound coal with little cleating? I suspect the former based on the logs from other wells in the area and the "bright" indications are an indication we are looking at better quality coals, which invariably will come with good gas contents...and hopefully equally good (low) ash contents.
Cheers,
SF
BOW Price at posting:
$1.56 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
